Canada: Pockets of deficits continue in West Coast, Prairie Provinces

20 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits in the Northern Territories, West Coast, and Prairie Provinces will downgrade in size, but remain in pockets of the regions. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in several regions of Nunavut.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northeastern British Columbia, in isolated portions of the Northern Rockies region, continuing into northwestern Alberta.
Central Saskatchewan, within the province’s Boreal Shield region. These deficits continue east into central Manitoba, near Lake Winnipeg.
Ontario, with exceptional deficits primarily in northern coastal regions bordering the Hudson Bay, and in west-central areas of the province in the Kenora District.
Newfoundland, persisting in central regions of the province near Lake Melville. Further south, exceptional deficits are expected throughout Nova Scotia.
Northwest Territories, widespread throughout areas south of Great Bear Lake and west northwest of Great Slave Lake. These deficits are also present in western Nunavut, in the Kitikmeot region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Nunavut, appearing in central portions of the Kivalliq Region, as well as northern coastal regions of Baffin Island.
Eastern Northwest Territories, in southern areas of the North Slave Region.
Southwestern Saskatchewan, near the town of Kindersley.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and central Northwest Territories. These deficits continue into western Nunavut’s Kitikmeot Region, as well as north-central Manitoba and northern coastal Ontario. Portions of Ontario's Kenora and Thunder Bay districts. Quebec’s Baie-d’Hudon and Rivière-Koksoak can expect severe to exceptional deficits. Much of central and western Newfoundland and Labrador can expect exceptional deficits. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to cover much of central to eastern Nunavut, particularly eastern coastal portions of the Kivalliq Region, as well as coastal areas bordering the Northwestern Passages. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in central Yukon and areas east of Great Slave Lake.

From May through July 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and central Northwest Territories. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in northern coastal Ontario and in central Newfoundland and Labrador. Southwestern Newfoundland and Labrador can anticipate exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in eastern Northwest Territories, as well as central and northern Nunavut.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta will downgrade to moderate to severe intensity, though will remain present in west-central Saskatchewan. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in areas south of Great Bear Lake. Further east, moderate to severe deficits may occur in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, southern Baffin Island, and the Petit-Mecantina region of Quebec. Moderate to severe surpluses may continue in central and northern Nunavut.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
An increasing number of Canadian grain-buying companies are declaring bankruptcy amid drought and low commodity prices, leaving hundreds of Canadian farmers with delays in payment or completely out of payment. Farmers are experiencing a lack of security due to the lack of protection from these failures, revealing problems in Canada’s farm safety net. The bankruptcies have worsened farmer troubles in Canada, the world’s top canola and third-highest wheat producer, while they also brace for tariffs from the United States.

The British Columbia River Forecast Centre recently reported that snowpack levels across the province is around 72% of its normal amount – a drop from the 87% recorded last month. Forecasters attribute the decrease to a comparatively dry January for much of British Columbia, and say the risk of drought will continue in the province if there isn't much precipitation by April. "Now that we have seen the snowpack lower for Feb. 1 compared to Jan. 1, there is that greater risk of potential lower water conditions moving into the summer and fall," said Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the River Forecast Centre. "So much does depend on the spring and summer weather conditions in terms of determining whether we are actually in a drought."

According to a new report, analysts from the Canadian Climate Institute warn that Canada’s goal to build 5.8 million new homes by 2030 will be stifled by climate change unless significant policy changes are made. Experts suggest that current land-use policies and a general lack of awareness for climate risks could lead to damages affecting over 760,000 homes which will cost up to C$3 billion. “The most affordable home is the one you don’t have to rebuild after a disaster,” said Ryan Ness, the CCI’s director of adaptation. “Our new report outlines the tools policymakers have to steer new housing to safer ground and support affordability in the process.” The report states that “redirecting just 3% of new homes away from the highest-risk flood areas to safer ground could save nearly 80% of all losses by 2030.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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