Australia & New Zealand: Intense deficits to persist along the southeast coast & Tasmania

20 November 2017

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast (below) indicates widespread exceptional deficits in South Australia on the Eyre Peninsula forking northwest and northeast, across the border into New South Wales, and along the coast from Adelaide through Melbourne. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Tasmania and the southwest tip of Western Australia. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Victoria, the Murray-Darling Basin in NSW, Queensland’s Channel Country, and New Caledonia.

Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast near Bundaberg, Queensland.

IMPACTS
When the rains finally arrived along the coast of central Queensland in mid-October after a dry winter, it was too much too fast, flooding millions of dollars' worth of crops and setting a record for the wettest October in some districts. Bundaberg received 335mm (13 inches) in 24 hours, leaving cane and strawberry fields inundated. A subsequent downpour further inland ruined chickpeas, barley, and wheat in nearby Monto. Some farmers are now facing 18 months without income.

Extremely dry conditions in Tasmania are forcing sheep and cattle graziers to implement their drought action plans, including destocking – selling off a portion of stock early – and “agistment” – paying to pasture herds elsewhere. As local creeks dry up, residents have been advised to move pet water bowls inside to discourage the high number of snakes migrating into populated areas.

New Zealand homeowners could see insurance prices double or properties become uninsurable as insurers like IAG move toward climate-change risk evaluation based on individual property rather than community-based risk assessment. Spreading hazard risk across many households can help keep insurance costs down, but climate change is making some hazards like flooding more of a certainty rather than a risk. This year is already the most expensive on record for weather-related claims, reports the Insurance Council.

Climate refugees could get some help in the form of a new humanitarian visa being considered in New Zealand. Though the requirements are yet unclear, up to 100 people a year could be admitted to the country under the new classification, creating a pathway for legal migration.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The extent of exceptional deficits observed in recent months over much of Australia is forecast to diminish considerably in the near-term. However, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in much of Tasmania through January 2018, receding somewhat thereafter, and in the far southwestern tip of Western Australia near Busselton through April. The near-term forecast (through January 2018) also includes lingering severe to exceptional deficits along Australia’s southeastern coast from Adelaide through Victoria, and a vast area of moderate to extreme deficits fanning out from the Eyre Peninsula through central South Australia. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for eastern New South Wales, with severe deficits in Riverina and extreme deficits near Canberra. Exceptional surpluses are forecast near Bundaberg, Queensland.

From February through April exceptional deficits will begin to diminish in Tasmania but will persist in the southwestern tip of Western Australia, as previously mentioned. Surpluses near Bundaberg are expected to transition to near-normal conditions. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of Queensland, becoming severe to exceptional in the southwest and across the border into northwestern New South Wales and northeastern South Australia. Deficits will continue to emerge in southeastern Australia but are expected to be primarily moderate, but may be more intense along the coast and along the Murray River. Near-normal water conditions are forecast for New Zealand and New Caledonia.

The forecast for the final months, May through July, indicates moderate deficits across northern Australia, the southwestern tip, and in Tasmania.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

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