Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, forecast for Tasmania and eastern Australia from Melbourne north through Canberra, moderating near Gold Coast in Queensland and continuing past Brisbane. Deficits in New Caledonia will downgrade from exceptional but will be severe to extreme.
The forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional water deficits in eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland to Melbourne, including the eastern Murray-Darling Basin. Deficits will shrink in Tasmania but will be severe. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
The forecast through August 2019 indicates a transition away from widespread, exceptional water deficits in Australia to, overall, mild deficits or normal conditions. However, intense deficits are forecast for Tasmania, the southern tip of Western Australia, northern New Zealand, and New Caledonia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected from Brisbane to Canberra.
The forecast through July indicates that widespread, exceptional water deficits will shrink considerably. Severe to exceptional deficits are, however, forecast in northern Australia from the Kimberly region through Top End, Northern Territory and along the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Deficits will also be intense in the southern tip of Western Australia, Tasmania, New Caledonia, and North Island, New Zealand.
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