Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall in Europe but remain widespread and intense in Finland. Deficits will moderate in central Europe, the Baltics, and Belarus, but intense pockets are forecast in southern Germany; Poland near Kraków; Germany near Dresden and Munich; coastal Norway; and central and northern Sweden. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, United Kingdom, northern European Russia, and pockets in Italy and the Balkans.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
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