Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through November indicates that water anomalies will shrink and downgrade in the region though surpluses will remain widespread in several vast areas of China including the southeast and northeast. Deficits will downgrade on the Shandong Peninsula, retreat from South Korea, and persist in North Korea, especially around Pyongyang. Near-normal conditions will return to a vast extent across the middle of China and the south. Moderate surpluses will persist in Kyushu, Japan.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, retreating from the Shandong Peninsula, the North China Plain, and Yunnan. Surpluses in southeastern China will remain widespread and the extent of exceptional anomalies will shift east, affecting Fujian, Jiangxi, and northern Guangxi. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for pockets of the Korean Peninsula. Deficits in northern Japan are expected to shrink and downgrade somewhat.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and moderate in southeastern China, downgrade in Qinghai and western Tibet, and moderate in northeastern China. Deficits will shrink in Sichuan and in Yunnan but remain intense, and intense deficits in Henan and Shandong will disappear. Deficits in central Korea will shrink but remain severe in southern North Korea and into South Korea around Seoul. Deficits could be exceptional near Pyongyang.
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