East Asia: Water deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan

22 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through December indicates widespread severe to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China. Anomalies will be particularly intense from eastern Inner Mongolia into Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning.

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in the vast Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed and into the North China Plain, though nearly normal conditions are expected along the river’s Ordos Loop. Near-normal water conditions are also expected in the Yangtze River Watershed with a few pockets of moderate deficit in northwestern Hunan and eastern Jiangxi. In the south, some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in Yunnan.

Widespread, intense deficits will reach from western Inner Mongolia through northern Qinghai and a vast belt across Xinjiang Uygur where transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also forecast. In Tibet (Xizang), surpluses of varying intensity will dominate the western half of the region and will include exceptional anomalies along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

North Korea can expect some moderate surpluses on Korea Bay in the Yellow Sea and along the northeastern coast on the Sea of Japan. Moderate deficits are forecast in southern Honshu, Japan, in Shikoku, and in Hokkaido’s northwestern tip. In Mongolia, deficits will be exceptional in the western Gobi Desert and severe in the lakes region in the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast in the Khovsgol region in the north and in the central Hangayn Mountains and the central Hentiyn Mountains.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates persistent, widespread surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in many regions, particularly in the Northeast. Surpluses will retreat from the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Watershed and from South China but will emerge throughout much of Yunnan and will be intense in the southeast. Deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Hunan with exceptional anomalies east of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi. In Tibet, surpluses will shrink in the east but persist in the west. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast from western Inner Mongolia through northern Qinghai and across the breadth of Xinjiang Uygur, mingled with transitional conditions. Deficits will reach north through the Gobi Desert in Mongolia, trailing as far as Ulaanbaatar. Surpluses are forecast in the Hentiyn, Hangayn, and Altai Mountains of Mongolia and in Khovsgol region. North Korea can expect moderate surpluses though anomalies will be severe along Korea Bay. Moderate deficits are forecast in a pocket on South Korea’s southeastern coast; pockets in Honshu, Japan; and in Hokkaido’s northwestern tip.

From July to September, anomalies will shrink considerably though surpluses will persist in Northeast China, pockets in the Yellow River Watershed, and western Tibet. Moderate surpluses will emerge in northern Anhui and central Yunnan. Deficits from Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang Uygur will shrink and downgrade, and a pocket of moderate deficit will emerge in southeastern Sichuan. Moderate deficits will linger in southern Honshu, centered on Kyoto.

The forecast for the final three months – October through December – indicates widespread deficits in China from Yunnan and Sichuan through Guizhou, extending to Shanghai on the coast. Deficits are also forecast for southern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and pockets in northwestern China. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China, western Tibet, and pockets of Shandong, Anhui, and Qinghai.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Agricultural analysts are predicting a 20 percent drop in China’s winter wheat harvest this year. Heavy precipitation last fall triggered flooding that delayed planting, affecting a third of the crop. A shortfall could force China to increase imports in an already tight global market, due to the Russian war in Ukraine, or to access its reserve stockpile.

Flood losses in China totaled US $25 billion last year, according to insurance industry experts, and only a tenth was insured.

Powerful storms swept through the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan in mid-April, with rain, hail, and wind that left 400,000 without power. Twenty people were injured, over 100 houses were damaged, and 300 hectares of crops were affected.

Hundreds of people, firefighters, soldiers, and residents, are working to control steppe fires that have broken out in eastern Mongolia, fueled by dry windy conditions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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