Europe: Water deficits will increase in Central & Eastern Europe

21 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates widespread water deficits in Portugal, Spain, France, and northern Italy. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in Portugal and western Spain, and severe in Catalonia in Spain’s northeast. In France, deficits will cover nearly the entire nation with the exception of the northernmost regions. Deficits will be especially intense in the Vienne River region, a tributary of the Loire, and in the French Riviera.

Many regions of Italy can also expect deficits. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in northern Italy, along the Tyrrhenian Coast, in the southern Apennines, and in Sicily and Sardinia. Deficits will be extreme to exceptional in the Lower Po River region. Intense surpluses are expected in Umbria.

Deficits are forecast for many areas in Central Europe with exceptional deficits in southern Belgium and deficits of varying intensity in western Switzerland, north-central Germany, eastern Czech Republic, western Slovakia, throughout Hungary, and from southern Austria into northern Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In Eastern Europe, deficits are forecast from southern Ukraine into Moldova, and pockets of moderate deficit are predicted for Romania and Bulgaria. Mixed conditions are expected in Greece. Scattered pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and northern Romania. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in Wales, Northern England, and Scotland.

In Northern Europe, exceptional water deficits are forecast in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed and Estonia, and deficits of varying intensity in Latvia. Intense surpluses are forecast in Denmark, central Iceland, and Arctic Norway, and in European Russia in Murmansk, the Middle Volga River region, and Vychegda Lowland. Areas expected to have surpluses of lesser intensity include southern Norbotten in Sweden and the Svernaya Dvina River Watershed in northern Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade somewhat on the Iberian Peninsula but increase in Central Europe and several areas in Eastern Europe and the Balkans as surpluses shrink. Widespread deficits will persist in France with intense anomalies in the Vienne River region and the Upper Durance River region in the French Alps. Severe deficits will increase in northern Italy in the Po River Watershed and deficits are forecast on the Tyrrhenian Coast. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Germany, pockets in the Balkans, throughout Moldova, and central and southern Ukraine. Anomalies will be intense on the Drava River in Austria. Northern Europe can expect deficits in the Baltics and much of Sweden’s southern half with exceptional deficits in Estonia, eastern Latvia, and central Sweden. Surpluses are forecast in European Russia, Denmark, central Iceland, and pockets of the U.K.

From July through September, deficits will persist in Portugal and increase in Spain, covering the nation’s southern half, and will include exceptional anomalies. Deficits will remain widespread in France but will downgrade, becoming moderate to severe overall. Deficits of similar intensity are expected in Italy and Switzerland, and generally moderate deficits in Central Europe and the Balkans. Deficits will shrink in Ukraine, increase in Crimea, and persist in central Sweden, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will downgrade somewhat in Murmansk and will shrink in European Russia as moderate deficits emerge in the north.

The forecast for October through December indicates surpluses in Iceland, and in Murmansk, the Vychedga Lowland, and the Volga Upland and Trans Volga regions of Russia. Deficits will linger in Estonia and central Sweden.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Water rationing has been introduced in several regions of northern Italy including Piedmont, Liguria, Lombardy and Trentino as the nation emerges from one of its driest winters in over a half century. A winter rainfall deficit of 80 percent has prompted the measures, with transgressors facing fines of up to €500 (US $542).

Lake Ceresole, a reservoir in Piedmont and source of hydropower and irrigation, has dried up. Drought in the northern region of Italy, the nation’s “food valley,” threatens tomato crops, fruits, wheat, and livestock. The Po River Valley generates 30 percent of the nation’s agriculture. The water level on the Po was so low near Mantua in the Lombardy region that a WWII military vehicle was revealed in the riverbed.

Officials in Albania ordered lights-out in public buildings and streets in the nation’s cities as drought reduced hydropower production, forcing energy imports and raising prices. Hydropower is the nation’s only source of electricity and low rainfall combined with excess energy consumption has curtailed native power generation.

Dry conditions have fueled wildfires in Switzerland, particularly in Ticino, and above average temperatures have boosted fire threat, prompting authorities to raise the fire risk to “severe.” Precipitation was 25 percent below normal at the end of March.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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