Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of June 2020 through May 2021 include: Venezuela, French Guiana, Estonia, Latvia, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Sahel (Africa), and British Columbia (Canada). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 4 September 2020.
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will retreat from the Pearl River Basin, downgrade in the Yellow River Basin, and moderate in the lower and middle regions of the Yangtze. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia and Xinjiang but intensify in Yunnan and Guangdong. Surpluses will increase in North Korea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of April 2020 through March 2021 include: Venezuela, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, northern European Russia, and British Columbia, Canada. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 July 2020.
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