East Asia: Widespread surpluses to persist in Yellow River Basin

17 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through May 2021 indicates widespread, intense surpluses in the Yellow (Huang He) and Yangtze River Basins. Conditions will include exceptional anomalies in the upper basin of the Yellow River and severe to extreme surpluses in the river’s lower and middle basin.

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In the Yangtze Basin, exceptional surpluses will dominate the lower and upper regions and much of the middle as well. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers.

Northeast China can also expect widespread surpluses of varying intensity including exceptional anomalies, and surpluses are expected on the Liaodong Peninsula in the northern Bohai Sea reaching well into Liaoning Province.

In southern China, deficits are forecast reaching from southern Yunnan through southern Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, and Taiwan. Deficits will be intense in Yunnan and northern Taiwan. Surpluses are expected in northern Guangxi in the region of the Rong River, a northern tributary of the Pearl River.

In Tibet (Xizang), intense surpluses are forecast in many regions including along the Yarlung River (Brahmaputra), while some areas of intense deficit are expected in the northwest. Western Inner Mongolia will see moderate to exceptional deficits, conditions that will reach west through northern Gansu into southern Xinjiang. Some areas of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are also expected in Xinjiang as transitions occur and surpluses are forecast in the northern reaches of the province.

Intense deficits are forecast for central Mongolia and pockets of surplus in the east and west. On the Korean Peninsula, a small pocket of deficit is expected in the northeast, but exceptional surpluses will dominate the southern half of North Korea, generally moderating through South Korea. In Japan, deficits are predicted for Hokkaido, southern Honshu, and Shikoku, and surpluses and mixed conditions in Kyushu. Deficits will be intense in Shikoku.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that surpluses in China will shrink and downgrade overall but will remain widespread in the Yellow and Yangtze River Watersheds, while shrinking south of the Yangtze. The extent of exceptional surplus will shrink considerably though large pockets are forecast in Shaanxi and southern Gansu. In southern China, deficits of varying intensity are forecast from southeastern Yunnan through southern Guangxi and reaching through the southeastern provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Guizhou. Deficits in Taiwan will shrink considerably. Surpluses will remain widespread in northeastern China and north of the Bohai Sea. In the west, deficits will increase from southern Xinjiang into northern Tibet.

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Widespread surpluses will persist on the Korean Peninsula, moderating in the south, and deficits in the northeast will disappear. In Japan, deficits are expected to shrink in Hokkaido but will emerge throughout much of the rest of the nation, transitioning from surplus. Deficits will be extreme in southern Honshu. In Mongolia, deficits in the center of the nation will shrink but remain intense; surpluses will persist in the west and east.

From December 2020 through February 2021, surpluses in China will continue to shrink and downgrade but will remain widespread in much of the Yellow River Watershed and north of the Yangtze River. Deficits will increase in the south, particularly in Yunnan, Guizhou, northern Guangxi, and Hunan; moderate in the southeast; and intensify near Shanghai. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China; South Korea will transition to moderate deficit; and surpluses along with transitional conditions are forecast for North Korea. Deficits will shrink in Japan but remain extreme in the south.

The forecast for the final three months – March through May 2021 – indicates normal conditions in southern China, intense surpluses in the Yellow River Watershed, and deficits in Yunnan, Mongolia, and Japan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
July flooding in Japan caused extensive damage to many rare plant specimens housed in a historical museum in Kumamoto when the Kuma River overflowed. Natural history organizations around the country came to the rescue, working against time to help the Hitoyoshi Castle History Museum restore more than 30,000 water-logged specimens and exhibits.

On 20 August after persistent rainfall had swollen the Yangtze River, the gates of the massive Three Gorges Dam were opened to discharge the largest amount of water since its reservoir was filled in 2003.

Food prices in China rose by 13 percent in July compared to a year ago, an increase attributed to a combination of events including widespread flooding in the nation’s farmland that affected production and transportation, international trade tensions, and the COVID 19 pandemic. The price of pork, a staple of the Chinese diet, rose by 85 percent. Facing what could be a corn shortfall after years of stockpiles, President Xi Jinping has instituted a national campaign against food waste.

Heavy rainfall and flooding in August negatively impacted companies in Chongqing and Sichuan, slowing the supply chain of raw materials for production and suppressing orders.

A section of the Chengdu-Kunming railway linking Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces reopened in mid-September after flooding in late August triggered landslides that damaged the track.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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