Australia & New Zealand: Severe, exceptional surpluses continue in Queensland

21 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits along the southern coast of Australia will dissipate, though some will continue in Victoria and New Zealand. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in Queensland.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Southwestern coastal regions of Victoria, in areas surrounding the city of Portland, continuing west into the Limestone Coast region of South Australia.
The majority of Tasmania.
New Zealand, in southern and western areas of the South Island, as well as western coastal areas of the North Island.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Northern Queensland, throughout regions of Far North and North Queensland. These surpluses continue south into the Flinders River sub-basin.
Northeastern New South Wales, primarily within the Northern Rivers region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through June 2025 indicates that extreme and exceptional surpluses will persist throughout much of Northern and Far North Queensland, as well as the Flinders sub-basin. Severe surpluses are expected in northeastern New South Wales, in the Northern Rivers region. Severe deficits are expected in southern coastal Victoria. Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated throughout Tasmania, as well as western coastal areas of New Zealand’s North Island.

From July through September 2025, extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in much of Queensland and the Flinders sub-basin. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue throughout Tasmania and coastal regions of New Zealand.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – anticipates that surpluses will remain in northern Queensland, as well as in the Flinders sub-basin. Moderate surpluses may continue in coastal areas of eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. Severe deficits may persist in southern areas of New Zealand’s South Island.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Severe flooding hit western Queensland, submerging an area in Australia’s “cattle country” equivalent to the size of France. More than 100,000 livestock are missing, drowned, or presumed dead after rivers rose following unusually heavy rain. Entire herds were lost and some ranches reported a loss of nearly all cattle. Towns like Thargomindah were surrounded by water, prompting emergency food drops and flood protection efforts.

A recent study observed the effect of weather, climate, and human activity on pollen levels in the cities of Canberra, Sydney, and Melbourne. Pollen levels in Canberra and Sydney rose, but likely went down in Melbourne, of which its pollen season started earlier and lasted longer. Hotter temperatures were linked to higher levels of pollen while rain and humidity were linked to lower pollen. Additionally, major climate patterns such as El Niño, La Niña, droughts, and rain were found to significantly affect pollen levels. Human activities, like farming and land use, also influenced pollen.

On April 1st, a massive tide hit the coast of Sydney, with waves reaching up to 5.5 meters in height. In Botany Bay, the floods forced residents to evacuate their homes. Buildings in Bondi Beach were damaged as the waves shattered windows and damaged property of a nearby surf club, Bondi Icebergs. Managerial staff of the surf club described the force of the water as “unprecedented.”

In New Zealand, farmers in the Tasman District struggle with severe prolonged drought. In Murchison, locals report drought-induced disruption of livestock feed supplies, as well as regional dryness not seen in almost 60 years. Milk production in the area has also declined, with some farmers reporting a 25% decrease in output, as well as a lack of sufficient water supply and an increase of crop deaths.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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