Africa: Surpluses spread further throughout Sahel

21 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will spread further throughout regions of the Sahel, and in southern Africa. Exceptional deficits will remain in northern Africa and central Africa, as well as along the Gulf of Guinea.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Algeria, widespread throughout the country, continuing east into most of Libya, northern Mali, and regions along the northern border of Niger. These anomalies also continue into northwestern areas of Chad.
Northeastern Libya, spreading along the coast near the city of Tobruk into northern coastal Egypt.
Regions of countries along the coast of Gulf of Guinea, including Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Togo, Benin, and southwestern to southern coastal Nigeria.
Cameroon, with the most concentrated anomalies spreading throughout central and southeastern regions of the country and into much of northern Gabon and Republic of Congo. These anomalies cover the majority of northern Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as portions of the country’s southeastern Manono region.
Zambia, throughout its North-Western province and spreading east into regions near the cities of Kitwe and Ndola. These anomalies are also present in western and southern Tanzania, near the Tabora region, and in areas along the country’s shared border with northern Mozambique. Angola’s Cuando Province and Madagascar’s Melaky Region will also observe isolated pockets of exceptional deficit.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Throughout the Sahel, spreading through southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, and throughout central, southern, and eastern Chad.
Southwestern and southern Sudan, with the most intense anomalies occurring in western areas of Darfur and in southern Kurdufan. Most of northern Eritrea and northern Ethiopia will also experience surpluses.
Botswana, spreading throughout most central, western, southern, and eastern protons of the country. These anomalies continue into northeastern South Africa and southwestern Zimbabwe. Northwestern Namibia will also observe surpluses, in areas west of Etosha National Park.
Areas along the northwestern border of Angola and southwestern border of the Democratic Republic of Congo, near the city of Matadi.
Southwestern and southern coastal regions of Madagascar.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits are expected in isolated pockets of northeastern Gabon, northeastern Republic of Congo, and central to southern Democratic Republic of Congo. Pockets of northern Mali, Algeria, central and northeastern coastal Libya, northeastern Sudan, and northeastern Niger will observe severe to extreme deficits. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist throughout the Sahel, with the most intense anomalies occurring in Senegal, southwestern Mali, southern Niger, and regions of Darfur. Further south, severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in northwestern Namibia, Botswana, southwestern to central Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, and north-central Mozambique.

From July through September 2025, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue along the Sahel, as well as neighboring regions of eastern Botswana, northeastern South Africa, and southwestern Zimbabwe. Northeastern areas of Mozambique’s Niassa province and southern coastal Madagascar may observe severe to extreme surpluses. Exceptional deficits are anticipated along the Gulf of Guinea, as well as significant portions of Algeria and central Libya. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, northeastern Republic of Congo, and central to southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo. These anomalies continue into the Copperbelt province of Zambia.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that surpluses along the Sahel will continue, as will regions of northwestern Namibia and Botswana. Coastal regions along the Gulf of Guinea will continue to observe exceptional deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Severe flooding hit the capital of Congo, Kinshasa, causing 22 deaths and isolating over half of the city. Kinshasa’s main road was damaged – a vital route for trade which connects Kinshasa with the rest of the country. In addition to the fatalities, 46 people were hospitalized and 75 families were displaced.

Morocco faces its worst drought in seven years as Eid al-Adha arrives, a major Islamic holiday centered on animal sacrifice. The drought has severely affected livestock health, with cattle numbers down 38%, while meat prices rise. As a result, many Moroccans struggle to afford the tradition. In response, King Mohammed VI recently exempted citizens from the obligation to sacrifice animals this year. Neighboring Algeria, also hit by drought, is importing sheep to manage the crisis.

Climate change is causing extreme harm to wildlife, especially in Africa. In Kenya, prolonged droughts have ruined ecosystems, killing hundreds of elephants and other animals and affecting both wildlife and human communities. Though elephants are an adaptable species, they struggle due to water shortages, disease, and habitat fragmentation. In 2022, 205 elephants died between February and October 2022 due to drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags