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East Asia: Water surpluses in S China will retreat

East Asia: Water surpluses in S China will retreat

The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will persist in the Yellow River Basin, downgrade in the Yangtze, and retreat from the Pearl. Deficits will moderate in Yunnan and emerge in Hainan. Near-normal conditions are forecast for Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan.

East Asia: Yangtze water surpluses will retreat

East Asia: Yangtze water surpluses will retreat

The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will retreat from the Yangtze River Basin, shrink in Northeast China and the Pearl River Basin, but persist along the Lower Yellow River and in the upper watershed. Exceptional deficits in southern Yunnan will disappear.

East Asia: Intense water surpluses forecast to persist in Guangxi & Guangdong

East Asia: Intense water surpluses forecast to persist in Guangxi & Guangdong

The forecast through July indicates that widespread water surpluses will nearly disappear in southeastern China but will persist in the south and will include exceptional anomalies. Taiwan will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Exceptional deficits will persist in western Inner Mongolia, and moderate to extreme deficits in Mongolia. Deficits are forecast between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Severe deficits are forecast for northern Japan.

East Asia: Water surpluses will persist south of the Yangtze

East Asia: Water surpluses will persist south of the Yangtze

The forecast through May indicates the emergence of a vast stretch of extreme to exceptional water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Widespread surpluses will downgrade but persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches. Moderate deficits will emerge in Hainan and conditions in Taiwan will transition to near-normal. Intense deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and will increase in much of Japan.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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