Central Asia & Russia: Deficits spread throughout Russian Plain, N Russia, Buryatia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits spread throughout Russian Plain, N Russia, Buryatia

24 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Western Russia, in central areas of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and in much of westernmost Western Siberia.  

  • Northern Russia, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, northern Yalamo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and northern coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout regions of Buryatia, east of Lake Baikal.

  • Isolated pockets of southern Kazakhstan, southern Uzbekistan, and northern to central Turkmenistan. 

Transitional conditions are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Russia, in northwestern areas of Krasnoyarsk Krai near the Yeinsei River. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that a significant portion of northern and north-central Russia will observe severe to exceptional surpluses, covering much of Krasnoyarsk Krai and central to northern areas of the Sakha Republic. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in northern coastal regions of Yalamo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Exceptional deficits will broaden in size within Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Buryatia, and the Russian Plain. In Kazakhstan, regions near Lake Kopa should anticipate severe to extreme surplus.  

From June through August 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to be spread further throughout the Russian Plain, central Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, central Irkutsk Oblast, and Buryatia. Further south, some moderate to severe deficits may occur in pockets of eastern Turkmenistan and east-central Tajikistan. North-central Kazakhstan will observe continuing moderate to severe surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will further diminish throughout most of Russia. Portions of southwestern Russia near the Volga River and areas near the city of Novy Urengoy may experience enduring deficits. Isolated regions of north-central Kazakhstan may observe continued surpluses.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Avialesookhrana, the Russian forestry agency, recently released a preliminary fire hazard forecast for March through May 2025. The report depicts increased fire risk in several regions of Russia, including portions of the Central, Southern, North Caucasian, Volga, and Far Eastern Federal Districts. In April, regions at risk are expected to increase, expanding into areas of the Northwestern, Central, Southern, Volga, Ural, Siberian, and Far Eastern Federal Districts. Fire risks are expected to spread even further in May, covering large portions of European Russia, the Urals, Siberia, and the Russian Far East.

To combat drought in agricultural areas, a plane from the Russian Hydrometerological Center will be sent over Stavropol on March 25th to induce artificial rainfall. The plan is expected to carry out rainfall inducing operations until April 25th. Additionally, the volume of agricultural insurance in the region has tripled since 2020, in an effort to minimize potential crop losses. 

Idris Gatin, deputy director of the Federal Center for Assessment of Safety and Quality of Agricultural Products, recently warned of negative impacts of warm temperatures in the republic of Tatarstan. “"The year is difficult, warm weather promotes the rapid reproduction of pests and viruses," said Gatin. Rosselkhoznadzor, officially the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, stresses the importance of using tested seeds to mitigate risks for crop health. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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