East Asia: NW, SE China to observe continued deficits

24 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and southeastern China.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northwestern China, spreading through southern to eastern Xinjiang.
Western China, occurring in western areas of Tibet’s Ngari Prefecture.
Northern China, appearing in western areas of Gansu and western Inner Mongolia.
Southeastern China, in central and eastern areas of the Yangtze River Basin, near the Poyang and Dongdongting lakes. These deficits continue further south into southern coastal areas of the Guangdong province.
Southwestern Mongolia, appearing in the Govi-Altai and Khovd provinces.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Northeastern China, in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, as well as western Heilongjiang.
Eastern China, throughout the Shandong Peninsula.
Central China, in areas north of Qinghai.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will continue in much of the Yangtze River Basin, spreading throughout much of the Hubei, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Hunan provinces. Extreme to exceptional deficits will continue in western Tibet. Much of northern Tibet and southern Xinjiang are expected to observe severe to exceptional surplus. Further east, moderate to severe surplus is expected to occur in eastern Tibet and Sichuan. These surpluses persist northeast, with severe to extreme surpluses emerging along the Yellow River. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in eastern Inner Mongolia and western Heilongjiang. Severe to exceptional transitional conditions are expected in southern Tibet.

From June through August 2025, deficits throughout the Yangtze River Basin are expected to dissipate, with near-normal conditions emerging across most of the region. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in central and eastern Xinjiang. Western Tibet will observe continuing severe to exceptional deficits. Some portions of northeastern China will observe moderate surplus, primarily near northern areas of the Liaoning province. Moderate to severe surplus will persist in the Shandong Peninsula.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – much of China is expected to observe near-normal conditions. Isolated pockets of extreme to exceptional deficits may continue in western Tibet. Areas in northeastern China and the Shandong Peninsula may experience continuing moderate to severe surpluses.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent study on meteorological droughts in Southwest China highlights the increasing severity and frequency of droughts changing atmospheric patterns and climate. The research, which studied droughts between 1948 to 2023, found that El Niño and La Niña events significantly impact drought severity, while rising temperatures and evapotranspiration exacerbate risks. Additionally, urban and agricultural expansion reduced water retention, which worsens drought conditions.

Guangdong typically produces 1.5 million tons of lychees annually. However, the 2024 season saw a significant decline in yields, roughly 50%, due to extreme weather. Record breaking heat in 2023 stunted crop growth, which was followed by heavy rains, significantly damaging agricultural areas. Farmers faced severe financial losses, with some harvesting only a handful of fruits. The disruption also affects other staple crops and raises the potential for food scarcity.

In Guangzhou, researchers at the South China Botanical Garden study how heatwaves and droughts accelerate death of trees, specifically through dehydration and blocked circulation of water in tree vessels. “During a drought, the trees dry out and air gets into the xylem [the vessels that transport water and nutrients through the tree], forming bubbles,” says researcher Liu Hui. “When those bubbles pop, they make a sound, as if the tree is crying with thirst. If those bubbles block a vessel, the transportation of water is cut off.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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