Middle East: Deficits remain in Levant, Iran, Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Deficits remain in Levant, Iran, Arabian Peninsula

25 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in the Middle East will downgrade in size, but remain in portions of the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, and Iran.  

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Pockets across central and northern Saudi Arabia, appearing in areas near the King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Imam Turki bin Abdullah Royal Reserves. The Makkah and Al Ahsa provinces are also expected to observe these deficits. 

  • Throughout the Levant, with exceptional deficits occurring throughout most of Israel, the West Bank, and Lebanon, as well as throughout central Jordan. These deficits continue into southwestern areas of Turkey and western to southwest Syria. Northeastern coastal regions of Turkey bordering the Black Sea will also observe these deficits. 

  • Eastern and southeastern Iraq, in the Wasit Governatore. These deficits continue east into southwestern coastal regions of Iran, as well as in the Golestan and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. 

  • Isolated pockets of southeastern Yemen, as well as in Oman’s Al Wusta Governorate.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Saudi Arabia, in western areas of the Aseer Province.

  • Western areas of Yemen, in areas along the coast of the Red Sea. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 anticipates exceptional deficits throughout much of Yemen and Oman. Exceptional deficits are also present in much of Israel, as well as northern Jordan, northwestern and southern Syria, and the West Bank. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in central and southeastern Turkey, northern Iraq, and western Azerbaijan. Some instances of moderate surplus and transitional conditions are expected in southwestern Saudi Arabia. 

From June through August 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to emerge in southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen. Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in central Israel, the West Bank, southeastern Iraq, and in isolated pockets of west to east-central Iran. Severe to exceptional deficits are also expected in northwestern Syria and northeastern coastal regions of Turkey. 

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that severe to extreme surpluses will continue in western Yemen and in some portions of southwestern Saudi Arabia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in south-central Saudi Arabia. Exceptional deficits may occur in portions of northwestern Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, southeastern Iraq, southern Iran, and northeastern coastal Turkey. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Iran faces persisting water scarcity, dam levels are at record lows. In mid-March, the managing director of Tehran's Water and Sewage Department reported that reserves supplying almost all of the city's drinking water have dropped to just 5% of capacity. Agriculture is the primary driver for the scarcity, as it consumes 90% of Iran’s water. Water shortages are also causing power cuts and rationing in the city of Tehran. Experts have equated Iran’s crisis as the country facing "water bankruptcy," and have pushed for reform to prevent further disaster.

The Abu Lahia River in southern Iraq, a primary water source for more than 60,000 people, is rapidly drying up due to changing climate and illegal water collection. In addition to affecting water accessibility for nearby communities, local livestock has also been affected. Buffalo populations have significantly decreased, as well as local fishery populations. As police work to address the illegal water harvesting, rising temperatures and declining rainfall continue to threaten the region.

Lebanon is currently facing a severe water crisis as rainfall in the area has dropped by 50%, threatening agriculture, food security, and water supplies. As groundwater levels reduce, farmers could potentially be forced to use unsafe irrigation methods, which would increase health risks. As agriculture consumes between 65 to 70% of the country’s available water, experts have stressed the importance for improvement of infrastructure, sustainability, and water conservation strategies.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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