Europe: Widespread deficits continues throughout E Europe

Europe: Widespread deficits continues throughout E Europe

25 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Central to eastern Poland, throughout much of the region, continuing across easternmost Slovakia and much of Belarus. 

  • Northwestern and central to eastern Ukraine, with the most intense anomalies occurring in areas near the cities of Luts’k, Donetsk, and Rivne, as well as regions east of the Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir. 

  • Western Romania, appearing in areas near the administrative division of Arad and continuing west into eastern Hungary and pockets of northern Serbia. 

  • Eastern Finland, widespread throughout regions near Lake Pielinen.  

  • Eastern Latvia, near the Krāslava Municipality. 

Significant deficits are expected to occur in large portions of European Russia. To fully observe these anomalies, please refer to the section depicting Central Asia and Russia. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Norway, in Nordland County. These anomalies continue north into northern Sweden, in areas near Lake Torneträsk. 

  • West-central Iceland, near the Borgarbyggð municipality. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will be widespread throughout much of Poland, Belarus, western and eastern Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia. These deficits continue south into western Romania, eastern Slovakia, and central to eastern Hungary. Northern and eastern Czechia, eastern Austria, and western Slovakia will also observe extreme to exceptional deficits. Further north, severe to exceptional surpluses will occur across most of northern Europe, with the most intense anomalies appearing in Norway’s Nordland County and Sweden’s Västerbotten County. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected throughout north-central Finland. Southern coastal regions of Sweden, south of Lake Vänern, will observe extreme to exceptional deficits. 

From June through August 2025, exceptional deficits will persist throughout much of eastern Europe. Exceptional deficits will remain in eastern Poland, northwestern and southeastern Ukraine, and much of Belarus. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in southern Sweden, central to eastern Finland, and the Baltics. 

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – suggests that while most of Europe will experience near-normal conditions, eastern Europe will experience deficits of varying intensity. The most intense anomalies are expected to continue in eastern Poland, southern Belarus, and northwestern to northeastern Ukraine. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Poland is experiencing its worst drought in a decade as dry conditions and lack of snowfall affect Podlase, Warmia, Mazury, Kujaway, and central Poland. Over half of Poland’s rivers are experiencing notably low levels, with the Vistula River in Warsaw dropping below 60 centimeters. The drought is expected to endanger several crops, such as potatoes, beets, and grain crops, which may lead to an increase in food prices. 

Researchers at the Center for Research in Agricultural Genomics (CRAG) have made substantial progress in understanding the drought resistance and adaptability of sorghum. Sorghum, a cereal grain fit for human and animal consumption, is gaining importance in Europe’s agricultural sector due to its natural resistance to drought and high temperatures. These breakthroughs could potentially improve local agriculture and food security, as well as reduce dependence on imports. 

More than 200 farmers in Brașov County, Transylvania affected by last year’s drought have started to receive financial aid in order to support their livestock. As of March 18th, 221 farmers have applied for assistance, covering 25,564 animals. Each farmer can receive 428 lei per animal, though the amount could decrease if more applications are submitted before the deadline on March 21st. The total national budget for aid is 240 million lei, and nearly half is funded by the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund – the rest from the state budget.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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