East Asia: Water surpluses forecast for southern China

23 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through September 2020 indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in Northeast China, in the Yellow River Basin (Huang He), and in western Tibet (Xizang).

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Exceptional deficits are expected in western Inner Mongolia with deficits of varying intensity reaching into southern and central Mongolia. Deficits will also be intense in Xinjiang in western China, particularly in the Taklimakan Desert.

Deficits ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast in southeastern China in Fujian and Guangdong, with a pocket of exceptional deficit forecast in northern Taiwan. Yunnan, too, can expect deficits.

On the Korean Peninsula, a few pockets of deficit are forecast in the north and some moderate surpluses in the southeast. Japan can expect moderate surpluses in eastern Honshu around Tokyo, and moderate deficits trailing up the island’s west coast, becoming more widespread and intense on Hokkaido.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates widespread surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, primarily moderate in the Lower and Middle regions but reaching exceptional intensity in the Yellow’s Upper Basin as well as the Yangtze’s Upper Basin. Widespread surpluses are also forecast in the south for Guizhou, Hunan, eastern Guangxi, northern Guangdong, southern Jiangxi, and western Fujian. And, surpluses are forecast for Shanghai. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Yunnan and a pocket around Hong Kong, and severe deficits in eastern Henan in the North China Plain. Deficits are also expected at the base of the Shandong Peninsula and in the Shandian River region in northern Inner Mongolia.

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Deficits of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of Mongolia and in North Korea around Pyongyang and in the northeast. South Korea can expect moderate surpluses in the northeast and southeast. Small pockets of moderate anomalies, deficits and surpluses, are forecast scattered throughout Japan.

From April through June 2020, surpluses of varying intensity will persist, shrinking somewhat, in Northeast China, the Yellow River Basin, and western Tibet. Moderate surpluses are forecast in southeastern Guizhou. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast for southern and southeastern China and the North China Plain. Deficits are expected in central and pockets of eastern Mongolia and will include intense anomalies around Ulaanbaatar; surpluses will emerge in the northwest. The Korean Peninsula will transition to near-normal conditions. Severe deficits are forecast in northern Honshu and in Hokkaido, Japan.

The forecast for the final three months – July through September 2020 – indicates nearly normal water conditions in much of the region with surpluses in western Tibet and much of Qinghai, and deficits in Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Hokkaido.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Drought in central China’s Henan Province, the worst in 60 years, has left 740,000 people with water shortages and cost the province around $1.3 billion yuan (USD $185 million). China’s central government will allocate 605 million yuan (~USD $86 million) for drought relief in Henan, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Chongqing Municipality. The recent allocation is the third relief package in a month for the Yangtze River region, a region marked by heat and rainfall deficits.

Catastrophic reserves held by Japan’s top three property insurers are projected to be slashed in half from what they were two years ago, decimated by recent payouts from record-setting flooding claims triggered by repeated storm events including Typhoon Hagibis which struck in mid-October and caused $15 billion in damages. Insurance payouts in fiscal 2019 are forecast to be 1 trillion yen (~USD $9.2 billion) from the top three insurance companies alone. Premiums on disaster insurance policies rose in September and are expected to take another jump in January of 2021.

The municipal government of Sendai, Japan, northeast of Tokyo, allocated 11 billion yen (~USD $101.3 million) this fiscal year for an upgrade to the area’s outdated drainage system. Typhoon Hagibis caused rivers to overflow their banks in Sendai, flooding sewer systems, roads, and underground passages. The Sendai zone is prone to flooding even without catastrophic events such as Hagibis, regularly forcing merchants to sandbag properties. The new waterway is expected to be completed in 2026 and should withstand rainfall reaching 52 millimeters (~2 inches) per hour, a once-in-a-decade event.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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