Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surpluses will persist in N European Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surpluses will persist in N European Russia

22 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2020 indicates a vast expanse of water surplus in Russia from St. Petersburg through the Western Siberian Plain with exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland west of the Urals.

Extreme surpluses are expected on the other side of the Urals in the Middle Ob River Watershed, and moderate anomalies will reach through the Western Siberian Plain.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the Lower Volga River Basin and the Don River Basin, along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei River Watershed, and north and west of Lake Baikal.

Surpluses are forecast in northern Kazakhstan in Kostanay Region and pockets between the Esil (Ishim) and Ertis (Irtysh) Rivers, and in eastern Kyrgyzstan. Deficits ranging from moderate to extreme are expected in western Kazakhstan, and moderate to exceptional in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As transitions occur Turkmenistan’s southern border will see conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple).

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates widespread exceptional surpluses in Russia in the Northern European Plain and across the Ural Mountains into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits will persist on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob and will increase in Central Siberian Plateau in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Deficits are also forecast in the Lena River Watershed and anomalies will be exceptional in the Upper Lena River region west and north of Lake Baikal. Intense deficits will emerge in the Irtysh River Watershed around Omsk, reaching into northern Kazakhstan.

Exceptional surpluses will persist in Kostanay in northern Kazakhstan, pockets of moderate deficit are expected in a belt across much of the nation’s middle, and surpluses are forecast in the western and eastern tips. In Kyrgyzstan, intense surpluses will persist, and surpluses are also forecast for central and northern Tajikistan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are expected along Turkmenistan’s southern border as transitions occur along with exceptional surpluses.

From April through June 2020, intense, widespread surpluses will increase in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plateau but will downgrade, though extreme to exceptional anomalies will persist in the Vychegda Lowland. Deficits will downgrade on the Gulf of Ob, shrink considerably in the Central Siberian Plateau but persist in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region, and will shrink around Lake Baikal, persisting north of the lake. Deficits in the Irtysh River Watershed around Omsk will disappear and deficits of varying intensity will emerge from Moscow to the Caspian Sea and into western Kazakhstan. Conditions will become nearly normal in much of the remainder of Kazakhstan and in the other nations of Central Asia, with some surpluses in northern Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, and southern Turkmenistan.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2020 – indicates that surpluses in the Northern European Plain and Western Siberian Plain will shrink. Deficits are forecast for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Prices for grains from Russia’s Altai Territory - known as the breadbasket of Russia - to neighboring Kazakhstan rose as exports to the republic tripled in 2019, a consequence of crop failure in Kazakhstan due to widespread drought. Kazakhstan’s Pavlodar Region, across the border from Altai Territory, has introduced water-saving technology to over 400,000 hectares of agricultural land to help improve yields.

Moscow’s warm December temperatures broke a daily record on December 18, a monthly record going back 133 years, and an annual record in the capital’s entire history of meteorological observations. Without a blanket of snow traditionally part of holiday festivities, city authorities brought in “fake snow” collected after grooming the region’s numerous ice rinks.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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