Middle East: Water deficits to retreat

Middle East: Water deficits to retreat

22 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending September 2020 indicates widespread, intense water deficits covering much of the Arabian Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman.

Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Iraq, intense surpluses in northern Iraq, and conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) west of the Euphrates River as transitions occur.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast from central into northern Syria. Western Turkey can expect deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional. Deficits of generally lesser intensity are forecast for Georgia and from Azerbaijan across the border into Iran.

Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast along Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast and extending east along the Turkmenistan border. Some pockets of surplus are also forecast in the southwest province of Khuzestan near the Persian Gulf and neighboring provinces to the north.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that deficits in the region will retreat considerably, leaving some pockets in western Turkey and its central Caspian Coast, Georgia and Azerbaijan, and southwestern Saudi Arabia. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast for Yemen. Intense surpluses will persist from central into northern Syria and a pocket in northern Iraq around Mosul. Surpluses in Iran will shrink considerably but will persist with intensity along the Caspian Sea Coast and border with Turkmenistan, and will also persist in pockets of the west, particularly the northwest corner around Lake Urmia. A pocket of surplus will emerge in central Khuzestan Province north of the Persian Gulf. Some areas of moderate surplus are expected in southeastern Saudi Arabia and into United Arab Republic, and a pocket of exceptional surplus will emerge along the coast in central Oman.

From April through June 2020, intense surpluses will persist from central into northern Syria and around Mosul in Iraq. Areas of surplus in Iran will shrink but will persist along the Caspian Sea Coast. Deficits will increase and intensify in central and southeastern Saudi Arabia, becoming extreme to severe in some regions. Generally moderate deficits will emerge in Qatar and United Arab Emirates. Moderate deficits are also forecast for pockets of Yemen, Turkey, and Georgia. Deficits somewhat more intense are expected near Iran’s border with Azerbaijan.

In the final quarter – July through September 2020 – deficits will increase and intensify in the region with widespread deficits in Saudi Arabia and the bulk of central Iran. Exceptional surpluses will persist surrounding Mosul, Iraq.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in Lebanon flooded the streets of Beirut in early December, leaving cars nearly submerged and prompting residents to seek transport in small boats. A tunnel leading to Rafik Hariri International Airport was closed when pumps failed, while one adventurous surfer managed to pass through. Many blame the city’s inadequate sewage system for the not-infrequent flooding. Protesters have been demonstrating for months against general government mismanagement and corruption.

Iran’s southern provinces of Hormozgan, Khuzestan, and Bushehr experienced widespread flooding in mid-December after heavy rainfall. With sewage systems overflowing, health officials in the city of Ahvaz in Khuzestan Province expressed concern about potential outbreaks of cholera and leishmaniasis. Iran’s economy suffered flood losses of 90 trillion rials ($690 million) in fiscal 2019.

January flooding killed seven people in Israel, closed schools in the United Arab Emirates, and delayed flights at Dubai International Airport.

Iraq’s prime minister resigned on December 1, 2019 amid protests triggered by many issues in the country, including water and electricity shortages, particularly in Basra Province. In late November, over 50 demonstrators were killed by security forces, bringing the total of deaths attributable to the unrest to 400. Reduced rainfall, upstream damming, and saltwater intrusion have contributed to freshwater scarcity in southern Iraq and a prediction of higher temperatures is expected to exacerbate the situation.

Armenia has introduced agricultural insurance, a move designed to protect small farmers from weather-related agricultural disasters. The federal government will subsidize insurance premiums as part of a larger strategy to reduce the nation’s food imports.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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