Africa: Intense water deficits ahead for central Somalia

22 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2020 indicates intense water deficits across much of northern Africa and will include widespread exceptional anomalies in Egypt and Libya, bleeding well into neighboring nations. Exceptional deficits are also forecast at the continent’s eastern tip in northern Somalia and into Somaliland and on the west coast from southern Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon.

In southern Africa, deficits of varying intensity are forecast with exceptional anomalies in southwestern Namibia, Northern and Eastern Cape in South Africa, Lesotho, and southern Mozambique. Deficits in central Botswana will be extreme. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Democratic Republic of the Congo’s northern half.

Surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast in East Africa including Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda, reaching into bordering countries including through Burundi into Democratic Republic of the Congo. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional in western Kenya stretching across Lake Victoria and the lake’s western shore, the Victoria Nile through Uganda, and in Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar in eastern Tanzania. Severe surpluses are forecast for southern Ethiopia and the White Nile through South Sudan leading across the northern border to a pocket of surplus in Sudan.

Other areas of surplus include coastal Nigeria and the Niger Delta reaching north, pockets scattered through nations on the Gulf of Guinea, and pockets across the Sahel.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably. Across northern Africa some mild deficits are expected in the west, intense deficits in Libya’s southeastern corner, and surpluses in Egypt including along the Nile. Surpluses are also forecast scattered across the Sahel and in nations on the north coast of the Gulf of Guinea, though conditions of both deficit and surplus are also indicated around the Gulf as transitions occur. In the Horn of Africa, exceptional deficits will shrink in northern Somalia and Somaliland but will emerge in central Somalia across the border into Ethiopia.

Surpluses in East Africa will maintain a widespread distribution pattern similar to that observed in the prior three months but will downgrade slightly and will retreat from Madagascar. Extreme deficits are forecast along the Uele (Welle) River in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Deficits will remain intense in southwestern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or generally mild deficits, though moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in South Africa northeast of Lesotho and surpluses around Pretoria and north of the Vaal River in North West Province.

From April through June 2020, exceptional deficits will emerge in Libya, Egypt, northern Sudan, northern Niger, and at the central border of Mauritania and Mali. Moderate deficits are forecast across much of the remainder of northern Africa. Conditions in the Horn will normalize as will prior deficit conditions in Cameroon and its neighbors to the south. Surpluses in East Africa will shrink slightly and moderate. Surpluses around the Gulf of Guinea will diminish considerably but surpluses will reemerge in northwestern Nigeria in the Mariga River Watershed. Pockets of surplus will persist from southern Mali east to South Sudan. Mild deficits or normal conditions are forecast for much of the remainder of the continent.

During the final quarter – July through September 2020 – deficits of varying intensity are forecast across northern Africa, though exceptional deficits will downgrade slightly in Libya and Egypt. Generally moderate surpluses will persist in East Africa and will emerge farther north in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and South Sudan, and will increase somewhat in south-central Sudan. Severe deficits are forecast for northern Angola.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Rainfall has been unseasonably heavy during Kenya’s “short rains,” normally the lesser of the nation’s two annual wet seasons, destroying homes, crops, and roads, with some estimates placing the human toll at 100. In West Pokot, landslides have claimed over 50 lives, 22 people remain missing, and up to 120,000 people have been affected. The Uhuru Dam near Nairobi burst its banks in early December, as did the Perkerra River in the Great Rift Valley and the Sabaki in the southeast.

Torrential rainfall at the end of November caused flooding and landslides in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo’s capital city of nearly 12-million people, with at least 39 deaths reported. Several houses and a road near the University of Kinshasa collapsed. While flooding in the city is not uncommon, exacerbated by poor infrastructure, the death toll in this event was especially high.

From October to mid-November rainfall across the Horn of Africa was up to 300 percent above average, resulting in 250 deaths from flooding and landslides.

The drought in Zimbabwe, the worst in 40 years, is pushing the country toward the brink of starvation, says the director of the U.N.’s World Food Programme. With inflation at 490 percent, more than 7 million people, nearly half the country’s population, are food insecure. Failed crops, livestock deaths, and electricity shortages are common. The Karibe Dam, which supplies much of the region’s electricity, is at less than 10 per cent of its capacity. Faced with spending money on tuition or food, some rural farm families are withdrawing children from school. After removing maize subsidies in mid-November prices spiked, but the government has since reinstated subsidies to protect limited household food budgets.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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