Europe: Intense water deficits forecast for Finland & S Ukraine

21 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2020 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity from Finland through the Balkans and widespread surpluses in northern European Russia and the United Kingdom.

Exceptional deficits will cover much of Ukraine’s western half and many areas of Finland. Other regions with a forecast of intense deficit include the Baltics, and pockets in Sweden, the Norwegian Sea coast, southern Belgium, eastern Germany, central Poland, northern Austria, Moldova, and eastern Bulgaria. Moderate to severe deficits are expected surrounding Seville in southern Spain, reaching through southernmost Portugal.

Surpluses are expected in Ireland and the U.K.; Brittany, France, and from southeastern France into northern Italy; along Spain’s north coast; Jutland (Denmark) and southern Norway; and European Russia. Surpluses will be widespread and exceptional in northern European Russia and somewhat less intense in Ireland and the U.K.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade overall in western Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics but deficits in Moldova and nearby regions in southern Ukraine will intensify, becoming exceptional, as will deficits in eastern Bulgaria and a pocket in west-central Poland. Intense deficits are also forecast for pockets in eastern Germany, northern Austria, southern Belgium, and Italy. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Balkans. Surpluses are forecast in northwestern France and from southeastern France through Switzerland and southern Austria, and in central Slovakia.

In Northern Europe, widespread exceptional deficits will persist in much of Finland and pockets of Sweden, particularly in the north, but some areas of surplus will emerge in central Sweden, southern Finland, and much of southern and coastal Norway. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will remain widespread in northern European Russia. Surpluses will moderate in Ireland and the U.K. and moderate surpluses will persist in much of peninsular Denmark with deficits forecast for the nation’s major islands to the east.

From April through June 2020, exceptional deficits will increase in Eastern and Central Europe and the Baltics, with widespread anomalies in western Ukraine and central Poland. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast throughout much of the Balkan region and some pockets in southern Italy. Intense deficits will shrink in northern Finland but persist in the south. Some pockets of intense deficit are forecast in Sweden, particularly in the far north but surpluses are also expected in parts of the nation’s northern half. Surpluses will persist in Norway’s central south, retreating from the fiords. Surpluses in northern European Russia will persist around the White Sea, increasing in Murmansk, but the extent of exceptional surpluses will shrink considerably. Conditions south of St. Petersburg will normalize. In Ireland and the U.K., surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving a few pockets of primarily moderate surplus in southern Ireland and eastern England.

The forecast for the remaining months – July through September 2020 – indicates deficits from Finland through the Baltics and Eastern Europe into the eastern Balkans. Surpluses are forecast for Murmansk, Russia. Areas of intense deficit include northwestern Ukraine into Belarus, and along regions of the Moskva and Oka Rivers east of Moscow.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Groundwater levels in many parts of Finland remain low in spite of significant autumn rainfall, and the situation is especially severe in North Karelia, North Savo, and Kainuu. Wells in eastern Finland’s Kainuu region were 20 to 80 centimeters below the seasonal average in mid-November, according to the Finnish Environment Institute. And in Petäjävesi in Central Finland ongoing drought conditions left wells so low that water quality from the local intake was compromised, forcing a municipal “boil water” order at the end of October. Three distribution points were set up for residents to obtain free drinking water.

Successive storms along the Riviera claimed the lives of twelve people over a two-week period from November into December. November deaths in France included an elderly couple whose car submerged and a woman found dead after a lifeboat overturned. Hundreds of homes were flooded, roads inundated, rail traffic disrupted, and flights temporarily suspended out of Nice. Around 1,600 emergency personnel were dispatched. In early December, flooding in the Var region killed two people, and three rescue personnel heading to the area perished when their helicopter crashed near Marseille. One death was reported in the Alps of Haute Provence.

Soggy ground due to a wet autumn is likely to reduce wheat sowing in France and in Britain, potentially lowering projections for the harvest. At the end of November sowing in France was running a week behind, with 80 percent of the expected area sown.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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