South America: Water deficits to persist in Chile & central Brazil

South America: Water deficits to persist in Chile & central Brazil

21 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2020 indicates many large pockets of exceptional water deficit throughout central Brazil in Mato Grosso, Pará, Goías, northern Minas Gerais, western Bahia, Tocantins, and farther north in Piauí, Maranhão, and Amapá. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in many other regions of the country.

Intense deficit anomalies are also forecast for French Guiana and in northern Venezuela from the Colombian border to Caracas. In Chile, deficits will be exceptional and widespread around Valparaiso and Santiago in the center of the country, and of varying intensity to the north through the Atacama Desert and to the south through the Gulf of Corcovado.

Other areas of deficit include southeastern Venezuela and eastern Suriname. Some moderate deficits are expected in the southern Pampas of Argentina.

Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast for the Orinoco Delta in northeastern Venezuela, some pockets in north-central Peru, the northern border of Peru and Bolivia, and eastern Uruguay. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in northwestern Argentina, central Mendoza Province, eastern Neuquén Province, and surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake in Patagonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that the extent of deficits in the region will shrink considerably overall. While nearly normal water conditions are forecast for much of the Amazon Basin in Brazil and in the eastern and southern states, the extent of intense deficits in central Brazil will increase, with severe to exceptional anomalies in Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins, and in the western state of Rondônia. Across the northern arc of the continent, exceptional deficits will emerge in far northern Colombia; deficits in northwestern Venezuela and in the southeastern region of the Orinoco River Basin will downgrade slightly but remain intense; and deficits will moderate in Guiana and Suriname and shrink in French Guiana.

Deficits of varying intensity will persist in much of Chile, and intense deficits in the north will reach across the Bolivian border. In Argentina, exceptional deficits will disappear in the western Pampas and moderate in their eastern extent. Deficits on the Bermejo River will moderate and conditions on the Paraná River will become nearly normal.

Areas of surplus include the Orinoco Delta in eastern Venezuela, central Colombia, pockets of northern Peru, along the northern border of Peru and Bolivia and pockets in central Bolivia, and northwestern Argentina.

From April through June 2020, nearly normal water conditions are expected for much of the continent. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in northern Chile and extreme deficits across the border into southern Bolivia. Moderate deficits will emerge in southern Colombia. Areas of surplus include the shared border of Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil; northwestern Argentina and central Mendoza Province; and surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake in Patagonia.

In the final quarter – July through September 2020 – mild to severe deficits are expected to emerge in many regions in the northern bulk of the continent. Intense deficits will persist in northern Chile and emerge in coastal Ecuador. A few areas of surplus will persist in Argentina and the intersection of Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Late November rainfall improved conditions in Argentina’s agricultural regions after drought delayed soy and corn plantings and threatened sown wheat. By November 27, farmers had planted 39 percent of planned soy acreage and 46.2 percent of corn. However, the Ministry of Agriculture declared a state of emergency in La Pampa Province from October 21, 2019 through April 24, 2020 in response to drought impacts, enabling banking institutions and the federal taxation authority to initiate relief measures to affected farmers.

Drought is expected to reduce the nation’s wheat and barley exports, a significant source of federal revenue. Exports totaled USD $4 billion from last season’s crop but the estimate for this season is USD $2.9 billion.

Thousands of protesters demonstrated outside the regional governor’s office in Mendoza Province, the center of Argentina’s wine-producing region, in opposition to the recent reversal of a 12-year old water protection law. Farmers in the region, famous for its malbec wine, fear the change favors extractive industries such as mining and threatens water resources.

In southwestern Colombia’s Nariño Department, 6,000 people were affected by flooding in early December when the Telembí River overflowed in Barbacoas. Flood events have plagued Colombia since mid-October, affecting 10,000 people in Santander Department, and 10,000 people in Antioquia Department during repeated incidents that included landslides

Peru, too, has experienced intense rainfall, with flooding in San Martín and Cusco.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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