United States: Water surpluses to persist in the Plains States & Upper Midwest

23 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending September 2020 indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest. Surpluses will reach exceptional intensity in the Dakotas and extreme intensity in the central region of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. Pockets of surplus are also expected in southern Montana, peppered throughout Wyoming, and central and southeastern Arizona.

ISciences_United_States_Composite_Adjusted_201910-202009_12mo_panel.png

Areas with a forecast of moderate surplus include Kentucky, Mississippi, northern Alabama, Georgia, western Kansas, and the intersection of Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

The Pacific Northwest can expect deficits of varying intensity reaching into Idaho, with intense deficits in the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast along California’s coast north of San Francisco, and intense deficits are expected in central Colorado leading southwest. Texas will see some areas of moderate deficit west of San Antonio and south of Dallas.

In the eastern U.S., severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for the Delmarva Peninsula between Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean, with small pockets of moderate deficit scattered in nearby states of Pennsylvania, the Virginias, and New Jersey. In Florida, moderate deficits will surround Lake Okeechobee with exceptional deficits farther south.

Outside the contiguous U.S., surpluses are forecast for much of Hawaii, severe deficits in western Puerto Rico and moderate deficits in the east. In Alaska, surpluses are forecast in the Koyukuk and Kobuk River regions in the north and in a wide path from the base of the Alaska Peninsula into the center of the state. Some deficits are expected from Anchorage leading east.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

From January through March 2020, widespread surpluses will persist in the Plains States and Upper Midwest with extreme to exceptional anomalies in the Dakotas and central Nebraska. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in much of southern Montana and Wyoming. Surpluses will shrink in Nevada and central Arizona, persist in southeastern Arizona with intensity, and nearly disappear from Southern California. Intense deficits will persist in central Colorado and the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho. Deficits in the Pacific Northwest and northern California will shrink. Anomalies in the western half of Texas will normalize but deficits will emerge in the east from Dallas to Houston and will include severe to extreme pockets.

ISciences_United_States_Composite_Adjusted_201910-202009_3mo_panel.png

East of the Mississippi, moderate surpluses are forecast for Kentucky, pockets of Mississippi and Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina. Deficits in Florida south of Lake Okeechobee will be extreme. Deficits are expected in the Delmarva Peninsula between Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean and in northwestern Virginia. In the Northeast, New York State’s northern corner will see deficits, but moderate surpluses are expected along the Lake Ontario shore. A patchwork of deficit and surplus anomalies is forecast for Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

From April through June, anomalies east of the Mississippi will nearly disappear, though surpluses are forecast for the northern portion of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and small pockets in Upstate New York and southwestern Mississippi. Though surpluses will downgrade and shrink in the Dakotas and Nebraska, anomalies will remain widespread in South Dakota with some exceptional pockets persisting. Surpluses will generally moderate and shrink in southern Montana and Wyoming, and Colorado’s areas of deficit will normalize. A few pockets of surplus are forecast in Colorado, surpluses in central Arizona will shrink slightly, and surpluses in southeastern Arizona will remain exceptional. Deficits will become merely mild in eastern Texas; moderate deficits will emerge in southwestern Arizona; and some pockets of primarily moderate deficit are forecast in the Pacific Northwest and a few isolated areas of California.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2020 – indicates surpluses in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Arizona; moderate deficits scattered throughout the Pacific Northwest and Southern California; and generally normal conditions elsewhere in the nation.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
2019 was a very wet year for many states in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains - the wettest year on record for Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota. North Dakota had its wettest year in over a century and many Michigan cities had their wettest year ever including Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Kent City, Hart, Alma, and Grand Ledge. The first weeks of 2020 brought flooding to the Windy City as storm-driven waves washed over Chicago’s lakeshore.

Farmers in Montana are hoping for $1.5 billion in federal disaster aid to recover losses from unharvested crops hit by early season snow. Cold, wet weather in 2019 negatively affected harvesting in Illinois as well, delaying and reducing 2019 corn and soy yields.

In the Pacific Northwest, officials in Washington State report that snowpack at the end of December was low, 47 percent of normal, mimicking conditions during the state’s last big drought in 2015.

A federal judge overseeing California utility company P G & E’s bankruptcy case has approved a $24.5 billion settlement for losses incurred by homeowners, businesses, and insurers in the Northern California wildfire sparked by the utility’s faulty equipment. The judge also extended the deadline for victims to file claims, from October 31 to December 31, and took the unusual step of assigning a court-appointed accountant to find additional fire victims eligible for as yet unfiled claims.

In Texas, a judge has ruled that the federal government is liable for damages sustained by Hurricane Harvey victims whose property lay behind federally-owned reservoirs that flooded.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags