Europe: Widespread deficits continue throughout E Europe

Europe: Widespread deficits continue throughout E Europe

18 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will continue in several eastern European countries. Severe to exceptional surplus is anticipated in portions of southern and northern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Poland, spanning across the vast majority of central to eastern regions. These deficits continue into much of Belarus, as well as northwestern Ukraine, with the most intense anomalies occurring in northwestern areas of Volyn Oblast. Southwestern Ukraine, particularly in the Kherson and Donetsk oblasts, are also expected to observe exceptional deficits. 

  • Southern and eastern Latvia, continuing into southern and eastern Lithuania. 

  • Eastern Germany, in areas near Berlin, continuing into areas near the city of Gorzów in western Poland. These anomalies continue into pockets of northern Czechia, south-central Austria, and eastern Slovakia. 

  • Northwestern Romania, near the city of Oradea. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Spain, widespread throughout the region, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the Salamanca province. These anomalies are also expected to cover Portugal. 

  • Northern Norway, widespread in the Troms region, continuing east into Norrbotten County in northern Sweden. 

  • West-central regions of Iceland, near eastern regions of the municipality of Borgarbyggð. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through June 2025 anticipates exceptional deficits to spread significantly through eastern and northern Europe, with the most concentrated anomalies occurring across Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltics. Deficits of extreme to exceptional intensity are anticipated in portions of central Germany, Denmark, southern Norway, and southeastern Finland. Significant portions of Ireland and central United Kingdom will observe exceptional deficits. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to spread throughout much of Spain and Portugal. Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in regions of northern Sweden and Norway. 

From July through September 2025, severe to exceptional deficits are expected to linger throughout several regions of eastern Europe, including eastern Poland, Belarus, and the Baltics. These deficits will continue south into northwestern and southeastern Ukraine. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated in northern Europe, in regions of southern Norway, southeastern Finland, and southern Sweden. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to persist in Spain and Portugal. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that the widespread severe to exceptional deficits may diminish in northern and eastern Europe. Some portions of northwestern and eastern Ukraine, southern Belarus, and eastern Poland may observe a continuation of extreme to exceptional deficits. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

According to the European Drought Observatory, central and eastern Europe is experiencing an early and severe drought, which threatens agriculture and food security. Affected countries include Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Greece, Sweden, and Ireland. Over half of Germany reports extreme topsoil drought, as well as drops in water levels of the Rhine River, which has disrupted cargo transport and raised logistical costs. Poland and Ukraine’s agricultural sectors are at high risk of grain crop failures, which could potentially destabilize the global grain market and raise food prices.

A significant portion of the Czech Republic faces a severe soil drought – one that has been continuous over the past 2 to 3 months. Compared to the 1961-2015 average, 40 percent of the country is significantly drier, with 7% of the country in extreme drought, 10% in exceptional drought, and 21% in severe drought. Regions affected most include the Vysočina Region, Zlín Region, Jeseníky Mountains, and Pardubice Region, although all regions are affected to some extent. Only 9 percent of the Czech Republic is experiencing average or better-than-average moisture. 

After 56 months of severe drought, officials in the Catalonia region have lifted water restrictions affecting the Ter-Llobregat system. This prolonged drought was deemed by experts to be the region’s worst drought in 200 years. This system serves over 6 million people in Barcelona and Girona. Reservoir levels have risen to 63%, moving the region from “alarm” to “pre-alarm” status. The "pre-alarm" phase allows for use of alternative water sources, such as desalination. Additionally, the Sau reservoir is now over 70% full, obscuring the once-visible spire of a submerged church, symbolizing restoration of the reservoir.

Europe experienced its hottest year on record in 2024, with severe weather events affecting over 400,000 people. According to Europe’s State of the Climate report, experts highlighted that Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average, and attributed 335 deaths to floods and storms, with the worst events affecting central Europe in September and eastern Spain in October. Additionally, roughly 30% of Europe’s rivers reached high flood levels, with 12% exceeding severe thresholds. Heatwaves, wildfires, and glacial melt worsened conditions in southeastern Europe, which endured its longest heatwave on record. Portugal saw 110,000 hectares burn in the span of one week, and glaciers across the continent suffered record mass loss.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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