Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: central, S Mexico to observe continued exceptional deficits

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: central, S Mexico to observe continued exceptional deficits

18 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits in northwestern and eastern coastal Mexico will dissipate, but remain in portions of central and southern Mexico. Widespread transitional conditions will resolve in central to southern Mexico and Central America, though some surpluses will continue in Central America. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Central to southern Mexico, with exceptional deficits covering the states of San Luis Potosi, Zacatecas, and Guanajuato. These deficits continue south into regions near Mexico City, spreading through Puebla and some portions of Oaxaca. 

  • Northern regions of Baja California Sur, as well as southern Baja California. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southeastern areas of Nicaragua, east of Lake Cocibolca. 

  • Isolated portions of central Panama. 

 The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 depicts pockets of moderate to severe surpluses spreading across western coastal areas of Mexico, within the states of Jalisco, Michoacan, and Guerrero. In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are also expected in northern Guatemala, central Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. Exceptional deficits are expected in Baja California. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Sonora. 

From July through September 2025, exceptional deficits will emerge in central and southern Mexico, spreading from the state of San Luis Potosi into regions near Mexico City. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in northern areas of Oaxaca, Puebla, and Chiapas, and will continue into some Central American countries, including central Guatemala, Honduras, and western coastal Nicaragua. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that some exceptional deficits will persist in central Mexico, near Mexico City. Central Honduras may experience severe deficits.

 Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.
IMPACTS
In the state of Chihuahua, governor Maru Campos recently announced an inability to deliver water to the United States, a requirement of the 1944 Water Treaty, due to extreme drought. "No one is forced to do the impossible," says Campos. As Chihuahua’s drought inhibits its ability to deliver water, Campos plans to coordinate with the U.S. government to find a solution. The 1944 treaty requires Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water sourced from the Rio Grande to the U.S. every five years. So far, Mexico has delivered less than 30% of that amount, and the current cycle is set to expire in October 2025.

In Sinaloa, Governor Rubén Rocha Moya requested that the federal government declare a natural disaster as severe, consistent drought has been present in all 20 of the state’s municipalities since May 2024. Rocha had initially requested assistance in December but was rejected – as conditions worsen, Moya has renewed the request. Currently, Sinaloa operates 60 water trucks, delivering water for domestic use, while bottled water is distributed for drinking. 

As drought continues to affect northern Mexico, conservationists work to revive the Colorado River Delta, which has run dry due to overuse and climate change. The Colorado River, which becomes mostly dry by the time it reaches Mexico, has been heavily diverted for agricultural and urban use. Efforts from conservationists over the last 20 years include removing invasive species, planting native trees, and releasing water to regenerate natural habitats. The Laguna Grande area now supports 260 hectares of native forest and wetlands and has reported the return of birds and beavers, which signals ecological recovery.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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