Canada: Exceptional deficits to continue in areas of Prairie Provinces, N Canada

Canada: Exceptional deficits to continue in areas of Prairie Provinces, N Canada

18 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in several provinces. Northern portions of Nunavut will observe surpluses of varying intensity. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Northeastern British Columbia, primarily throughout the Northern Rockies region. These anomalies continue into MacKenzie County in northwestern Alberta. 

  • Central Saskatchewan, in the Boreal Plain region. Further east, central to northeastern Manitoba, in regions northeast of Lake Winnipeg, are expected to observe exceptional deficits. 

  • Ontario, in areas within southern areas of the Kenora District. Further west, the majority of Nova Scotia is expected to observe exceptional deficits. 

  • Northwest Territories, with exceptional deficits covering most areas south of Great Bear Lake, which continue south into regions near Trout Lake. These deficits also extend west of Great Bear Lake, covering western areas of the Inuvik Region. 

  • Western Nunavut, primarily within the Kitikmeot Region. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Nunavut, spread throughout northern areas of the Kivalliq region, as well as throughout the Qikiqtaaluk Region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, northeastern Manitoba, and northern coastal Ontario. Regions south of Great Bear Lake and western Nunavut, as well as Northwest Territories Inuvik Region, will observe continued deficits. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in southern Nunavut, northern peninsular Quebec, Baffin Island, and Nunavut’s Qikiqtalluk region. Pockets of severe surplus are expected in northern British Columbia and northern Saskatchewan. 

From July through September 2025, significant portions of British Columbia, central Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec will observe an emergence of widespread moderate to severe deficits. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, western Saskatchewan, northeastern Manitoba, and northern coastal Ontario. Some exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southeastern British Columbia, as well as in Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. Further north, regions around Great Bear Lake are expected to observe continued exceptional deficits, as well as western Nunavut. Nunavut’s Qikiqtalluk region will observe continued moderate to severe surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits in the Prairie Provinces will continue to lessen in size, though some anomalies will still remain in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and western Saskatchewan. Regions near Great Bear Lake and western Nunavut will also observe continued severe to exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in Nunavut’s Qikiqtalluk region. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Canadian hydropower exports to New England have been stifled as drought affects areas of Quebec. This drought has diminished water flow to generators of the province’s main exporter, Hydro-Québec, which has exposed vulnerabilities in its energy supply. Historically, Canadian hydropower provides up to 10% of New England’s electricity, but a lack of exports could lead to an increase of dependence on fossil fuels, which will raise costs and emissions, especially during summer and winter.

Canadian farmers are preparing for drought and rising costs by shifting planting strategies for the 2025 harvest season. According to Statistics Canada, wheat acreage in Canada is expected to rise by 2.6%, while canola acreage is dropping by 1.7% nationally. Soybean acreage is down 1.3% overall, and barley down 2%. 

British Columbia faces an increase in drought risk this spring and summer despite an increase of snowpack through March. The province’s average snowpack measures at 79% of normal – an improvement from 2024’s levels of 63%, but still below historical levels. Snowpack levels vary by region, as areas on the central coast are reportedly 45% of normal, while portions of the upper Fraser basin measure at 94%. As temperatures rise and compound with lingering effects of drought, concern has risen regarding the province’s limited water supply. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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