Middle East: Exceptional deficits continue in Levant, Iran, Turkey, Iraq

Middle East: Exceptional deficits continue in Levant, Iran, Turkey, Iraq

18 April 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in December 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in regions of the Levant, as well as other Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Turkey, and Iraq. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • The Levant, widespread throughout Israel, the West Bank, and Lebanon. These deficits continue throughout most regions along the western and northern border of Syria. 

  • Areas along the southern and southeastern border of Turkey. These deficits continue into northern and eastern Iraq. 

  • Iran, widespread throughout the country. These deficits will continue into southern Azerbaijan. 

  • Throughout much of Qatar.

  • Yemen, in the Al Mahrah Governorate. Deficits are also expected in much of central and northern Oman. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in portions of the Aseer province. 

  • Western coastal regions of Yemen. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
 The forecast through June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits are anticipated in much of Oman, eastern and southern coastal Yemen, and pockets of south-central Saudi Arabia. The Levant is expected to observe widespread exceptional deficits, which continue into western and northwestern Syria, as well as northern Iraq. Regions of southeastern Iraq, near the city of Nasiriyah, will also observe exceptional deficits, which spread throughout Iran and into southern Azerbaijan. 

From July through September 2025, exceptional deficits are expected in south-central Saudi Arabia, as well as throughout the Levant. Small pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in northern Iraq, northeastern and southeastern Turkey, and in northern coastal, west-central, and east-central Iran. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to occur in southeastern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen. 

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2025 – indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will persist in southwestern Saudi Arabia and western coastal Yemen. Small pockets of exceptional deficits may occur in small areas of south-central Yemen, as well as the Levant, west-central and southeastern Turkey, and Iran. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Northeastern Syria, also known as the country’s “breadbasket,” is experiencing its worst drought in 55 years. Widespread crop failures continue as 90% of its farmland is dependent on rainfall. Experts anticipate that 2 million hectares will not receive sufficient rainfall, which will severely diminish yields of wheat, barley, lentils, chickpeas, and cumin. Issues stemming from the drought compound with declining levels in the Euphrates and Khabur rivers, accelerating desertification and threatening Syrian agriculture and livestock. 

Iran faces an unprecedented water crisis as Tehran’s dams and reservoirs reach historic lows. As of March 2025, the capital’s five major reservoirs, which provide water to 9 million residents, are 13% full, with some dams reportedly less than 2% full. Additionally, rainfall is down 46% compared to historical averages. The government has started drilling wells, though reports detail that the groundwater accessed is contaminated, raising public health concerns. 

Iraq faces its second major drought in 40 years, stifling its agricultural sector, especially in the region of Kurdistan. Wheat production is expected to drop by 70% in the Nineveh province and by 50% in Kurdistan, threatening the country’s food security. The Norwegian Refugee Council reported that it anticipates a collapse in water and food production, which could lead to mass displacement in Iraq and Syria.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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