The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in southwestern states, as well as in some areas of the Midwest. Severe to exceptional surpluses will linger in southern regions of Florida and in much of the noncontiguous U.S.
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will retreat from the Pearl River Basin, downgrade in the Yellow River Basin, and moderate in the lower and middle regions of the Yangtze. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia and Xinjiang but intensify in Yunnan and Guangdong. Surpluses will increase in North Korea.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will retreat in the Lower and Middle Yangtze Basin, transitioning to moderate deficits in the Lower Basin. Surpluses will increase in the Pearl River Basin and Southeast China. Deficits will emerge in eastern Mongolia, and Honshu and Hokkaido, Japan.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and Liaoning are expected to moderate in the near term – September through November. Widespread surpluses are expected to persist in southern China from Poyang Lake in Jiangxi southwest through Hunan into Guangxi and Yunnan, and the western Pearl River Delta, though the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish considerably. The coastal southeast will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, a trend which is forecast to continue through May. After November, surpluses in Jiangxi through Yunnan will continue to diminish.
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