Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges throughout S Mexico, Central America
Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: Deficits to occur in E Europe

Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity. 

Europe: Deficits to occur in E Europe
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues ...

Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.  

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in N Australia
South America
ISciences staff
South America: Deficits persist in Amazonas, ...

Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.  

South America: Deficits persist in Amazonas, Bolivarian Nations
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits persist in Prairie Provinces, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in several areas of the Prairie Provinces, as well as in regions of central and eastern Canada. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in various regions of Nunavut. 

Canada: Deficits persist in Prairie Provinces, C and E Canada

Tarim Basin

East Asia: Water surpluses in South China to diminish; deficits ahead for Hokkaido

East Asia: Water surpluses in South China to diminish; deficits ahead for Hokkaido

Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and Liaoning are expected to moderate in the near term – September through November. Widespread surpluses are expected to persist in southern China from Poyang Lake in Jiangxi southwest through Hunan into Guangxi and Yunnan, and the western Pearl River Delta, though the extent of exceptional surpluses will diminish considerably. The coastal southeast will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, a trend which is forecast to continue through May. After November, surpluses in Jiangxi through Yunnan will continue to diminish.

East Asia: Water deficits forecast to continue in North & Northeast, surpluses in South

East Asia: Water deficits forecast to continue in North & Northeast, surpluses in South

Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia into Northeast China, on the Korean Peninsula, and in Honshu, Japan are expected to moderate in the near term – August through October – but severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in the northeast and moderate deficits will emerge from southern Gansu to the East China Sea. Widespread surpluses are forecast across much of southern China. After October intense deficits in northwestern China will increase in extent, in Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and deficits of lesser severity will continue to emerge in the Northeast China and in the North China Plain. 

East Asia: Exceptional water deficits forecast for western Inner Mongolia

East Asia: Exceptional water deficits forecast for western Inner Mongolia

A return to near-normal water conditions is forecast for Southeast China from May through July, a change from surpluses observed in prior months. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Mongolia; western Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Yunnan, China; and northern Japan. Surpluses are forecast in Qinghai and in a wide north/south swatch of central Tibet. The forecast for August through October shows a significant retreat of water anomalies in China’s eastern half, with some moderate deficits in Guizhou, Sichuan, and coastal Guangdong.

East Asia: Water deficits to emerge in South Korea, Japan, & persist in Mongolia

East Asia: Water deficits to emerge in South Korea, Japan, & persist in Mongolia

A return to normal water conditions is forecast for Southeast China from April through June – a change from surpluses observed in prior months. Deficits are forecast to emerge in South Korea, Japan, Northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, Henan, and Shaanxi. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in southern Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning. Surpluses are forecast for northern Sichuan and much of Qinghai. The forecast for July through September indicates the persistence of deficits in western Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and the emergence of deficits in the Sichuan Basin. 

East Asia: Water deficits forecast in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia; surpluses Jiangsu

East Asia: Water deficits forecast in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia; surpluses Jiangsu

From March through May water deficits are forecast to persist in southern Mongolia; western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning in China; and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits are expected to emerge in southeast China from Zhejiang through eastern Yunnan, and in Taiwan, South Korea, and eastern Honshu, Japan. Moderate deficits will persist in southern Shaanxi and eastern Sichuan, and may become severe along the Han River. Surplus conditions are expected to persist in Jiangsu.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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