Central Asia & Russia: Exceptional deficits will emerge in Mangystau KZ

22 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Syr Darya River in the south. In both regions, deficits will downgrade as they reach north. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in far northern Kazakhstan, and moderate deficits in the nation’s northernmost tip.

South of Lake Balkhash, moderate deficits are forecast though conditions will be mixed in the Alataw Mountains nearby and severe surpluses are forecast near Kapchagay Reservoir, moderating as they follow the Ili River to the Chinese border. Deficits will be intense throughout much of Turkmenistan and several regions of Uzbekistan though surpluses are expected around Aydar Lake in southeastern Uzbekistan. In Tajikistan, deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast. Mixed conditions are expected in Kyrgyzstan including surpluses in the east near Lake Issyk Kul.

West of the Urals in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the Vychegda Lowland and coastal north, the Middle Volga River Region, Trans-Volga, and Volga Uplands. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychegda Lowland, Middle Volga, and southeast of Saratov. East of the Urals, moderate deficits are forecast in the Tura River region reaching to Tyumen, and extreme deficits in the north spanning the Gulf of Ob. Widespread surpluses are forecast in much of the Western Siberian Plain with transitions at its eastern edge leading to widespread deficits of varying intensity in the Central Siberian Plateau. In Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast, but surpluses of varying intensity are expected from Baikal through Russian regions bordering China. Intense deficits are forecast west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates the emergence of widespread surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Yenisei River Watershed and in the eastern Volga River region, a transition from prior deficit. Widespread, intense surpluses will increase from the Vakh River through the Lower Yenisei Watershed. Anomalies will also be intense in the Middle Volga east of Nizhny Novgorod. Intense deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob will shrink and downgrade somewhat and deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau will shrink. In Irkutsk Oblast, however, deficits will increase. Surpluses are forecast east of Baikal and widespread, intense deficits will increase west of the Sea of Okhotsk. In Kazakhstan, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in Mangystau Region and moderate deficits in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Syr Darya River in the south and in the nation’s northernmost tip. Areas of surplus include pockets in northern Kostanay and northern Akmola Regions, the Alataw Mountains, and along the Ile River. Western Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will see exceptional deficits, moderating in the east. Mixed conditions are expected in Tajikistan and surpluses in eastern and southwestern Kyrgyzstan.

From July through September, surpluses in Russia will shrink considerably and deficits, including exceptional anomalies, will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau and Irkutsk Oblast becoming widespread. Deficits will emerge in the Pechora River Watershed in the tundra, transitioning from surplus, and in southern Russia near the Caucasus. Deficits will downgrade considerably in Mangystau, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan though intense deficits will emerge in eastern Uzbekistan. Surpluses will downgrade somewhat in Kyrgyzstan and mixed conditions are forecast in Tajikistan.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates deficits in Russia from the Gulf of Ob well into the Central Siberian Plateau, and surpluses in the Western Siberian Plain, Vychedga Lowland, and eastern Volga Region. Some pockets of generally moderate deficit are forecast in southern Central Asia, and surpluses in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Smog that developed from over 400 wildfires blanketed Russia’s third largest city, Novosibirsk, in mid-April. The extent of burning area in the nation is double that of last year at this time, with the most intense events in Siberia and the Far East. Hundreds of fires burned in Siberia’s Omsk region, with smoke reaching 625 kilometers (388 miles) to the city of Tyumen. Health authorities warned of hazardous air quality conditions in Krasnoyarsk.

In Russia’s Orenburg region, cultivated winter crop acreage is half that of normal, reduced by the effects of last year’s drought.

Flooding was reported in several regions of Kazakhstan as snowmelt reached rivers. In Atyrau region, the Nogaity River rose three meters, submerging homes and forcing residents to evacuate. Over 600 people were evacuated in western Kazakhstan where over 100 animals died in floods. One child died in Qaraghandy. Flooding also affected the capital, Nur-Sultan, and Aqmola and Aqtobe regions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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