Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.
Exceptional deficits will remain throughout the Amazon and the Boliviarian Nations. Similar deficits will occur in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, in Argentina, and in Chile.
The forecast for November 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2024 through July 2025 in northern South America, Canada, northwestern and eastern China, and northern to central Africa. Areas expected to experience surplus include central Africa, South Asia, and Central America.
With the release of WSIM v3 and 8 years of additional data, we reevaluate drought risk in the Amazon and the historic drought that continue to affect the region.
The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria.
The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in the Northern European Plain reaching across the Urals through the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are expected around the Gulf of Ob and in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.
The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia. Surpluses are forecast for the Ob River Basin and along the Yenisei River, but intense deficits are expected in the eastern Yenisei Basin. In southern Turkmenistan intense surpluses are forecast; surpluses are also expected in Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and eastern Uzbekistan.
The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia and will persist in the Ob River Basin. Deficits are forecast along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, and in the regions of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska and the Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Surpluses are forecast in western and eastern Uzbekistan, northern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and central Tajikistan.
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