Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will persist north of Lk Baikal

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2020 indicates a vast expanse of intense water surplus in Russia’s Vychegda Lowland and exceptional surpluses in the Pechora River Watershed west of the Urals. Surpluses will reach past the Ob River Watershed on the other side of the Urals into the Western Siberian Plain, with exceptional surpluses in the Upper Reaches of the Nadym and Pur Rivers.

ISciences_Central_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Exceptional deficits are forecast along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei River Watershed, and north of Lake Baikal.

Surpluses are forecast along Turkmenistan’s southern border; in Kazakhstan fanning out from the north shore of the Caspian Sea and in Kostanay Region in the north; and in eastern Kyrgyzstan and along the Naryn River through the Fergana Valley. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in eastern Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and central and southwestern Kazakhstan, with some pockets of exceptional anomalies in central Kazakhstan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that surpluses will increase in the Northern European Plain in Russia with exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Ob River Basin and will be exceptional in the region of the Middle Ob and into the Upper Reaches of the Nadym and Pur Rivers. In the Volga River region, moderate surpluses are forecast on the Lower Volga, exceptional surpluses north of Volgograd, and severe surpluses around the Kuybyshev Reservoir between Samara and Kazan. Moderate deficits are forecast south of Nizhny Novgorod in the Middle Volga region and intense surpluses in the Upper Reaches of the Volga Watershed.

ISciences_Central_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Surpluses will persist north of Novosibirsk, but deficits will increase in other directions. Intense deficits will increase on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob and will decrease but remain widespread in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed and north of Lake Baikal.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses will persist in pockets of the north, east, and in the south along the Ile River. Deficits in the south will become merely mild or transition to normal with surplus emerging on a section of the Syr Darya River. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan and a pocket in the west, and in a wide band along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.

From January through March 2020, intense, widespread surpluses will persist in the Northern European Plain in Russia but will shrink somewhat in the Western Siberian Plain. Deficits are forecast along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region, in large pockets around Lake Baikal, and in a wide area around Novosibirsk, reaching into northeastern Kazakhstan. Intense surpluses will persist in Kyrgyzstan and on Turkmenistan’s southern border. Surpluses will moderate in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and moderate surpluses will emerge in many pockets scattered across Kazakhstan.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2020 – indicates moderate to severe surpluses across the Northern European Plain and in the Western Siberian Plain, deficits along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob and in western regions of the Central Siberian Plateau, and relatively normal conditions in Central Asia, with surpluses in eastern Kyrgyzstan, northern Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan’s southern border.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 28 October 2019]
Heavy rains in Krasnoyarsk Region of Siberian Russia caused a dam to collapse, flooding a remote mining camp and killing at least 15 people. Thirteen people remain missing at the gold mining operation.

Wildfires that raced through Siberia and the Russian Arctic encompassing an area the size of Belgium have been contained as of the end of September, according to Russian authorities. Smog from the fires posed health hazards to major cities in the region and fire damages reached USD $100 million.

Spring-planted cereal crops are being harvested in Central Asia but production in northern Kazakhstan is expected to be reduced due to dry conditions. Normally a major wheat producer, the country may be forced to import 1.5 metric tons.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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