South Asia: Widespread water surpluses forecast

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2020 indicates water surplus as the dominant anomaly in the region, covering much of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; many pockets throughout Pakistan; central Afghanistan from Kabul to Kandahar; and western Bhutan.

ISciences_South_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Areas of exceptional surplus include Bangladesh; India’s western coast from north of Mumbai into Karnataka in the south and along the Krishna River through Karnataka; the Indravati River Basin through Chhattisgarh into Odisha; central Rajasthan; western Madhya Pradesh; and the Gandak River through central Nepal and Bihar, India.

Moderate deficits are forecast for northern Uttar Pradesh, India; southwestern Pakistan; and some pockets of northern Afghanistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will dominate most of India and will include exceptional anomalies from Mumbai into Kerala in the west; the Indravati River Basin through Chhattisgarh into Odisha; the Narmada River Basin through Madhya Pradesh; and central Rajasthan. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist throughout Nepal and much of Bhutan and will emerge throughout Sri Lanka. Exceptional anomalies will shrink in Bangladesh, but surpluses will remain widespread and intense. In Pakistan, moderate surpluses are forecast along rivers in the Indus River system in the north; moderate deficits will emerge in the southwest along with a pocket of exceptional deficit along the coast north of Karachi. Intense surpluses will increase in Afghanistan, with widespread surpluses forecast as some regions of deficit transition. Anomalies will be exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif.

ISciences_South_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

From January through March 2020, surpluses will persist in India in a distribution pattern similar to the prior three months’ forecast, with the exception that both deficits and surpluses (pink/purple) are forecast for Gujarat and the west coast as transitions occur. Moderate deficits are forecast to emerge in western Rajasthan. Surpluses will remain widespread in Bangladesh and Nepal. Conditions in central Pakistan will transition from surplus to normal, and deficits in the southwest will become merely mild, though moderate deficits will emerge in the southeast. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Afghanistan but remain exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2020 – indicates nearly normal water conditions returning to Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, though exceptional surpluses will persist around Mazar-e Sharif. Surpluses will shrink in India but remain widespread, particularly from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh through eastern Uttar Pradesh.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 30 October 2019]
The 2019 monsoon season, the heaviest in 25 years, left more than 1,600 dead in India. In the hard-hit northern state of Bihar, dengue cases rose to 775 as authorities began fumigation to kill mosquitoes attracted by flood-waters filled with garbage and animal carcasses.

Coal production dropped to record lows as mines flooded, and limited supplies had a difficult time reaching manufacturers including power plants, aluminum smelters, and cement companies. Coal inventories at power plants dipped to a nine-month low, forcing imports.

Onions, not the sweetest smelling member of the lily family but treasured by Indian cooks, were in short supply due to the heavy monsoon as well as the drought that preceded it. The humble bulb revealed its political power when Prime Minister Modi banned exports and cracked down on onion smuggling and hoarding. The move pleased consumers as prices dropped, upset onion farmers who staged demonstrations, and left neighboring countries staring dispiritedly at plates of bland food.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that in 2018 more people in Afghanistan were displaced by drought than conflict.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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