Severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico.
Widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity.
Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.
Exceptional deficits will continue in Amazonas and the Bolivarian Nations, but will diminish in size.
Through January 2020 surpluses are forecast for much of the region including exceptional anomalies in India from Mumbai into Kerala, the Narmada River Basin, and central Rajasthan. Surpluses will remain intense throughout Bangladesh and will increase in Afghanistan, with exceptional anomalies forecast in the Upper Helmand River Watershed and around Mazar-e Sharif.
The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses of varying intensity will dominate most of India and will include exceptional anomalies from Mumbai into Kerala; the Indravati River Basin; the Narmada River Basin; and central Rajasthan. Surpluses are also forecast for Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Indus River system in Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, Bangladesh, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7 October 2019
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits in India will nearly disappear, as areas of deficit normalize or transition to surplus. Surpluses will persist in a vast stretch from Gujarat through Rajasthan, increasing in Madhya Pradesh. Surpluses are also forecast from Mumbai into Karnataka, and for central Uttar Pradesh. Southern India and Sri Lanka will transition from deficit to surplus. Widespread surpluses will persist in central Afghanistan.
The forecast through October indicates normal water conditions for many parts of India as deficits nearly disappear. Surpluses are forecast in the far north and northeast, the western Gangetic Plain, Rajasthan, along Gujarat’s northern border, and southeastern Maharashtra. Widespread surpluses will persist across central Afghanistan, in northern Pakistan and along rivers, in central Nepal, and throughout Bangladesh.
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