ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST OCTOBER 2019

15 October 2019

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2019 and running through June 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast October 15, 2019 (pdf).

United States: Through December, widespread water surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Plains States and the Upper Midwest, forming a column from North Dakota through northern Oklahoma. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in the Dakotas. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast from the Ohio River Valley to the Atlantic and south to the Gulf, but anomalies will be intense in West Virginia and states to the east. Intense deficits are also forecast for central and southeastern Colorado.

Canada: The forecast through December indicates nearly normal water conditions for most major metropolitan areas, with moderate surpluses around Vancouver. Intense deficits are forecast for large blocks of northern Quebec, central and northeastern Manitoba, and central and northwestern Alberta. Areas of significant surplus include southern British Columbia, northern reaches of the Prairie Provinces, and Ontario from Lake Superior to the province’s western border.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through December indicates water deficits in Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz State, central San Luis Potosi, and southeastern Chihuahua. Surpluses are expected along Mexico’s Pacific Coast from Jalisco into Guerrero, in pockets of the north, and in Pacific regions throughout much of Central America.

South America: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will diminish across the continent, though intense anomalies will persist in French Guiana, Suriname, Amapá and Pará, Brazil. Severe to extreme anomalies are forecast for São Paulo State. Anomalies elsewhere include deficits in Chile and north-central Venezuela, and surpluses in central Colombia, northern Peru, and Uruguay.

Europe: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall leaving many areas with moderate deficit or normal conditions, but widespread, severe to exceptional anomalies will persist in Finland and around the Baltic Sea. Pockets of intense deficit will persist in central Ukraine, southeastern Germany, and central France. Areas of surplus include Ireland and the UK, and northern European Russia.

Africa: The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving southern nations in nearly normal conditions and some scattered, primarily moderate deficits across the north. Surpluses are forecast from Guinea east to southern Sudan, around the Gulf of Guinea, in East Africa, and from southern Gabon through northwestern Angola.

Middle East: The forecast through December indicates persistent, widespread, intense water surpluses from northern Syria, through northern Iraq and northwestern Iran, and along the Iran-Turkmen border. Exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in a vast block of southern Riyadh Region in Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in the Northern European Plain reaching across the Urals through the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are expected around the Gulf of Ob and in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.

South Asia: The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses of varying intensity will dominate most of India and will include exceptional anomalies from Mumbai into Kerala; the Indravati River Basin; the Narmada River Basin; and central Rajasthan. Surpluses are also forecast for Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Indus River system in Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through December indicates water surplus in Myanmar, Laos, eastern Cambodia, and Vietnam. Deficits are expected around Tonlé Sap, Cambodia, and in Malaysia, Sumatra, Java, Indonesian Borneo, northern New Guinea, and the eastern Philippines. Deficits will be extreme in Sumatra and Java.

East Asia: The forecast through December indicates intense water surpluses in Northeast China and surpluses of varying intensity from Tibet through the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses in China’s south and southeast will shrink and moderate. Deficits are forecast for Shandong, northern Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, Mongolia, and pockets of North Korea and Honshu, Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through December indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Australia, but a broad path of severe to extreme deficit is forecast from Brisbane in the east past Melbourne in the south and in Tasmania. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.

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