United States: Water surplus will persist in the Plains & Upper Midwest

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending June 2020 indicates that water surpluses of varying intensity will form a column down the middle of the country in the Missouri River Basin from North Dakota through Kansas and into Oklahoma. Widespread, extreme to exceptional anomalies are expected in South Dakota. Surpluses are also forecast for Missouri and the Upper Midwest States, southern Montana and many parts of Wyoming, and pockets of central Nevada and northwestern Utah.

ISciences_United_States_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast much of the remainder of Utah and Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in pockets of California’s southern half and in southern Texas along the Rio Grande.

In the eastern U.S., deficits of varying intensity are expected from the eastern Ohio River Valley to the Atlantic and south through Alabama. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in West Virginia, coastal North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. Generally mild deficits are forecast for Florida, but exceptional conditions are expected in the central Everglades. In the Northeast, moderate surpluses are forecast for Upstate New York near Syracuse, and in eastern Maine; and moderate deficits in Vermont.

Outside the contiguous U.S., surpluses are forecast for much of Hawaii, and moderate deficits in western Puerto Rico. In Alaska, exceptional deficits are forecast along the southern shore of the state from the Alaska Peninsula through Kodiak, Anchorage, and Valdez, with severe deficits in the Tanana River region to the north. Surpluses are forecast in the Koyukuk River Watershed in northern Alaska.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

From October through December 2019, widespread surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Plains States and the Upper Midwest. Anomalies will form a column from North Dakota through northern Oklahoma with widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses in South Dakota. Severe surpluses are expected in Minnesota, Wisconsin, parts of Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois and Michigan. Intense surpluses are also forecast in the Rockies and northern Nevada, and moderate surpluses in pockets of the Pacific Northwest.

ISciences_United_States_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Exceptional deficits are forecast in central and southeastern Colorado, and severe deficits in northern New Mexico. In the eastern U.S., extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for West Virginia; extreme deficits in Virginia, Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, Delaware, and North Carolina; and moderate deficits in the Ohio River Valley, the Lower Mississippi region, and the southeastern states. Deficits will be intense in a pocket of southeastern Georgia into Florida, and in the Everglades.

From January through March 2020, deficits will nearly disappear, though intense deficits will persist in central Colorado, severe deficits in Florida’s Everglades, and moderate deficits in central North Carolina. Surpluses will remain dominant in the Plains States and Upper Midwest, with extreme to exceptional anomalies in the Dakotas, particularly South Dakota. Surpluses will increase in Montana with severe anomalies emerging on the Missouri River. Surpluses will persist in Wyoming and pockets of the Rockies and Pacific Northwest and will shrink in eastern Nevada and Utah. Moderate surpluses will increase in Upstate New York.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2020 – indicates normal conditions throughout much of the nation, with surpluses in the Dakotas and moderate deficits in the Southwest.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 23 October 2019]
Since mid-October, officials in California have been scrambling to address multiple wildfires around the state that have left three people dead. After a wet winter and spring, a hot summer turned heavy vegetation into ample fuel aided by strong seasonal winds, the Diablos in the north and Santa Anas in the south. Nearly 800,000 were left without power in Northern California during forced black-outs. Utility giant Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), facing $30 billion in liabilities from previous wildfires caused by its faulty equipment, turned the power off, affecting homes, businesses, schools, and government agencies in what many described as an ill-conceived and poorly executed plan. In Southern California, the Saddleridge Fire in the Los Angeles area burned around 8,000 acres and 23,000 homes were ordered to evacuate. Hazardous air quality affected dozens of communities.

The deadline is quickly approaching for victims of previous wildfires in the state, including last year’s Camp Fire that killed over 80 people and destroyed the town of Paradise, to file insurance claims, part of PG&E’s bankruptcy case.

CalFire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, says that climate change is affecting fire behavior, pointing to prolonged drought in the state, emphasizing that there is no real “new normal” because “erratic” is the new normal. Recent California legislation has increased mental health services for firefighters and other first responders.

The northern Plains are facing what could be record-breaking early snowfall, an inauspicious start to the winter season on the heels of one of the wettest Septembers on record during which the number of days above flood stage on portions of the Missouri River exceeded previous gauge numbers. Over two feet of snow fell near Devil’s Lake, North Dakota in mid-October, closing highways, stranding vehicles, and downing power lines. The snowpack, as it melts next spring, will further swell the Red and Missouri Rivers.

Many Mississippi River communities are still struggling to recover from epic 2019 flooding.

Kentucky, North Carolina, and Georgia are reporting drought conditions, prompting a disaster declaration in Kentucky.

In 2018, over a million Americans became IDPs, Internally Displaced People, due to wildfires and hurricanes, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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