South Asia: Widespread water surpluses will persist

South Asia: Widespread water surpluses will persist

18 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2020 indicates water surplus as the dominant anomaly in the region covering much of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; several rivers in Pakistan; central Afghanistan from Kabul to Kandahar; and western Bhutan.

Areas of exceptional surplus include Bangladesh; India’s western coast from north of Mumbai into Karnataka in the south and along the Krishna River through Karnataka; the Indravati River Basin through Chhattisgarh into Odisha; central Rajasthan; western Madhya Pradesh; and the Gandak River through central Nepal and Bihar, India.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for northern Uttar Pradesh, India, and moderate deficits in Assam in the northeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will dominate most of India and will include exceptional anomalies from Mumbai into Kerala in the west, the Narmada River Basin through Madhya Pradesh, and central Rajasthan. Surpluses in western Bangladesh will downgrade somewhat from exceptional to extreme but exceptional anomalies will persist in the east. Surpluses of varying intensity will continue in Nepal and much of Bhutan; anomalies on the Gandak River will downgrade but will be extreme. In Sri Lanka, surpluses will generally moderate. Intense surpluses will increase in Afghanistan with widespread surpluses forecast in the center of the country. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Upper Helmand River Watershed and around Mazar-e Sharif. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in scattered small pockets throughout Pakistan.

From February through April 2020, conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan will approach normal, though a pocket of intense surplus is expected to persist around Mazar-e Sharif. Widespread surpluses will persist in India in a distribution pattern similar to the prior three months’ forecast with the exception that both deficits and surpluses (pink/purple) are forecast for Gujarat and the west coast as transitions occur. Surpluses will persist in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan and will be extreme in Bangladesh. Surpluses in Sri Lanka will shrink and moderate.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2020 – indicates nearly normal water conditions returning to much of the region though intense surpluses will persist around Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan, and along a path in India through central Maharashtra and central Karnataka leading east through southern Andhra Pradesh and pockets of Tamil Nadu. Deficits are forecast in India’s Far Northeast.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Fallout from India’s ban on onion exports, an effort to retain its stock after unusually widespread and persistent monsoon rainfall decimated crops, has reached Bangladesh where prices are at record levels. In South Asia, onion prices have long been a barometer of overall economic health and frequently a catalyst for wider political dissent. The state-run trading board is offering onions at subsidized pricing for Bangladeshis willing to queue up for several hours, and the federal government is now airlifting imports from as far away as Egypt and Turkey.

This seasons monsoon destruction continue to affect agriculture in India. Soy crops were damaged in the nation’s primarily growing regions of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, pushing prices to their highest in three and a half years. Cotton bolls suffered in Maharastra and Gujarat, rice crops were damaged in Odisha and West Bengal, and sugar mills delayed their crushing season. Food inflation rose 7.89 percent in October over last year.

Heavy rains and lightning hit Pakistan’s Thar Desert in mid-November, killing 27 people.

Drought-prone regions in India are more susceptible to the debilitating bone disease flourosis, warn health officials. As water supplies dwindle, contaminated sources are accessed for drinking water, often with excessive concentrations of fluoride. Up to 69 percent of residents in Nalgonda, Telangana are affected by the disease.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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