Middle East: Intense water surplus forecast for N Syria

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending June 2020 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity covering most of the Arabian Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and pockets of Oman and Yemen.

ISciences_Middle_East_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Intense deficits are forecast for southern Iraq, and primarily moderate deficits in Jordan, southern Syria, and Israel. Deficits are also forecast for the bulk of central Iran, with exceptional deficits along the Persian Gulf coast and farther south along the Gulf of Oman.

Surpluses are forecast in north-central Syria, from northern Iraq into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the southeastern Caspian Sea Coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Surpluses are also forecast in southeastern Iran in central Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in north-central Syria; along the Iran-Turkmen border; from Mosul to Kirkuk, Iraq; and from Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran into southern Armenia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that widespread surpluses will persist in the region from northern Syria, skirting southeastern Turkey, through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran, and along the southeastern shore of the Caspian Sea and the Iran-Turkmen border. Surpluses will remain intense, with exceptional anomalies persisting along the Iran-Turkmen border and between Mosul and Kirkuk in Iraq, and re-emerging in northern Syria.

ISciences_Middle_East_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in a vast block of southern Riyadh Region in Saudi Arabia with deficits of lesser intensity reaching east into Qatar and United Arab Emirates. A pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge on Oman’s southwestern shore; mixed conditions are forecast for Yemen. Some moderate deficits are expected in southern Iraq and southeastern Iran; moderate to severe deficits in pockets of Georgia.

From January through March 2020, many parts of the region will return to normal water conditions as anomalies shrink and downgrade. Surpluses are forecast for central Syria, northern Iraq, pockets of western Iran, and the Iran-Turkmen border, and will include exceptional conditions. Deficits in southern Saudi Arabia will shrink and downgrade somewhat but remain intense in Riyadh Region. Exceptional deficits will persist along Oman’s southwestern coast and will emerge in southeastern and western Yemen.

In the final quarter – April through June 2020 – areas of surplus will continue to shrink, leaving some patches in northern Syria, around Mosul, and in Iran near the southeastern coast of the Caspian Sea, though conditions of both deficit and surplus (purple) are also forecast. Severe deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 29 October 2019]
Iran’s limited water resources are hampering the region’s ability to fully exploit its energy industry, according to investigative reporting by Reuters. Energy production facilities require consistent and plentiful water for cooling, water Iran simply doesn’t have. After a decade, one planned petrochemical plant remains only 10 percent complete, a victim of faulty calculations of projected water consumption and objections from the nation’s agricultural interests. Over two-thirds of a gallon of water is required to produce a gallon of gasoline, and drought and limited water supplies have led to farmer protests in the recent past. Iran’s annual water consumption exceeds its replenishment rate by 3.8 billion cubic meters.

Despite exceptional, devastating rainfall earlier this year in many parts of Iran that produced fatal flooding, about one-third of the country’s population faces water shortage.

Strong winds, high temperatures, and dry conditions in early October have led to Lebanon’s most devastating wildfires in decades. More than 100 blazes were reported, creating scenes some could only describe as “like judgement day” and reminiscent of the country’s 15-year civil war. Between 1,300-1,500 hectares (3,212-3,706 acres) of forest were lost in 48 hours, raising Lebanon’s forest loss this year to double its yearly average. At least one death was reported and 70 people were treated for injuries. Cyprus, Jordan, and Greece deployed aircraft to augment Lebanon’s limited fire-fighting air squad.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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