Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficits near Gulf of Ob

25 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2023 indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and in the middle reaches of the Syr Darya River in the nation’s south. Deficits of lesser intensity are forecast northeast of Lake Balkhash and along the Lower Ile River as it discharges into Balkhash. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in far northern Kazakhstan, and extreme to exceptional surpluses in the Kapchagay Reservoir region on the middle reaches of the Ile River. Other areas of surplus include the Alataw Mountains and eastern Kazakh Uplands.

Moderate deficits are forecast in eastern Turkmenistan, and surpluses in its Caspian corner. In Uzbekistan, deficits and transitions (pink/purple) are expected in the center of the nation and surpluses in the east near Lake Aydar. Surpluses are also forecast throughout much of Kyrgyzstan, extreme near Lake Issyk-Kul and exceptional in the south leading into central Tajikistan. Eastern Tajikistan can expect deficits.

In Asian Russia, intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob, but widespread surpluses are forecast from the central Ural Mountains through the Western Siberian Plain past the Yenisei River. In Sakha Republic, severe to extreme deficits are forecast north of the Vilyuy Reservoir; exceptional surpluses are expected in the Tyung River Watershed of northern Sakha. Siberia’s far south can expect deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional. Zabaykalsky Krai in Transbaikal will experience exceptional surpluses. Intense deficits are forecast in the Lena River Delta (not shown) and severe to exceptional deficits west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that exceptional deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob in Russia will increase, reaching east past the city of Norilsk. Surpluses from the Western Siberian Plain past the Yenisei River will shrink somewhat. Deficits north of the Vilyuy Reservoir will shrink and downgrade. In southern Siberian, surpluses are forecast in Tomsk and Kemerovo Oblasts, and deficits in the Republic of Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains. Surpluses are forecast near Lake Baikal and in Transbaikal. Intense surpluses will persist in the Tyung River area of northern Sakha Republic. Deficits in the Lena Delta and west of the Sea of Okhotsk will downgrade, moderating in the Delta but still severe near the Sea of Okhotsk. In Central Asia, some moderate deficits will linger in Mangystau, Kazakhstan, and emerge in the nation’s far south, transitioning from surplus. Surpluses are forecast in the far north and southeast. Most of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will transition from surplus to mild deficit. Surpluses will downgrade somewhat in Kyrgyzstan; mixed conditions are forecast in Tajikistan.

From November 2022 through January 2023, deficits will persist from the Gulf of Ob past Norilsk, in Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains, and in the Lena Delta and near the Sea of Okhotsk. Deficits will re-emerge in the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in the Western Siberian Plain and persist in the Tyung River region, near Baikal and in Transbaikal. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern Kazakhstan as surpluses retreat. Deficits will nearly disappear elsewhere in Central Asia, persisting in pockets of eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses will linger in Kyrgyzstan and re-emerge in pockets of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2023 – indicates near-normal conditions in Central Asia with some persistent surpluses. The pattern of anomalies in Russia will be similar to that of the prior forecast though deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau will moderate and surpluses will emerge on the Middle Yenisei River.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After flooding in mid-July when the East Dagomys River overflowed, the resort city of Sochi, Russia was inundated again over several days at the end of the month after torrential downpours. One death was reported and dozens of vehicles and several hundred homes damaged. Several substations flooded causing power outages, and a portion of a sea coast highway was destroyed.

Thawing permafrost is suspected of causing a dam to break in Tiksi in Arctic Yakutia, Russia. The dam’s reservoir supplies drinking water to the local community and army base.

Smokey fog from wildfires in Western Siberia drifted more than 1,000 km (621 miles) to blanket the city of Novosibirsk. Health authorities in the Khanti-Mansiysky district where the fires originated have advised residents of several cities in the area to avoid outdoor activities and wear masks due to increased risk of respiratory illness. Flights at the regional airport have been delayed.

Unusually high temperatures in a mountain village of Tajikistan triggered snowmelt, swelling a river above flood level and creating a mudflow that blocked a local road.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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