Canada: Vast pockets of intense water deficit

26 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through April 2023 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in the eastern half of the nation and in the northwest.

In the east, deficits will be exceptional in many regions including southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi and Saint John River watersheds in New Brunswick, and the following regions in Quebec: from the Caniapiscau River to the George River, the Manicouagan Reservoir into Minganie Region, west of Lake Mistassini, and the Ungava Peninsula. Surpluses are forecast in Quebec between the Saint Maurice River and Lac Saint Jean.

Intense deficits are expected in a broad column along Ontario’s eastern border leading into Southern Ontario east of Georgian Bay, and a pocket north of Lake Erie. Deficits will be widespread in northern Kenora District though surpluses are forecast for southern Kenora.

Widespread intense deficits are forecast in a belt across central Manitoba and in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Surpluses are forecast south of Lake Winnipeg and near the U.S. border. Elsewhere in the Prairie Provinces, deficits will be intense in a path across south-central Saskatchewan leading to Regina and a pocket in the center of the province, but widespread surpluses are forecast in the northwest leading west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. In Alberta, deficits are expected in the central south, the Middle Athabasca River region, and the northwest, and surpluses near Calgary.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia leading east into the Columbia Watershed, but exceptional deficits are expected in East Kootenay in the province’s southeast corner. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in the Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds. In British Columbia’s central far north, intense deficits will lead from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates many areas of deficit in the east, frequently intense, including areas of Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and in Quebec between the Caniapiscau and Upper George Rivers, and in the Côte-Nord and Lake Mistassini regions. In Ontario deficits will be severe to exceptional along the eastern border and east of Georgian Bay, and severe north of Lake Erie. Much of northern Kenora will also see deficits though surpluses will increase in Polar Bear Provincial Park on Hudson Bay and will linger in southern Kenora. Surpluses are forecast in Manitoba south of Lake Winnipeg, along the U.S. border, and in the far northwest, but widespread, exceptional deficits will persist in a broad belt north of Lake Winnipeg and near Hudson Bay. Widespread, intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta. Deficits will linger in pockets near the U.S. border in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and severe to extreme deficits near Lac La Ronge in central Saskatchewan. Moderate surpluses will trace parts of the North Saskatchewan River. Deficits will be widespread and intense in Alberta from the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River through the northwest. In British Columbia, surpluses are expected in the Thompson and Quesnel Watersheds, and intense deficits in the Upper Fraser and Nechako Watersheds and from Williston Lake into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

From November 2022 through January 2023, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, but large pockets will persist in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba. Widespread moderate surpluses will emerge in the Ungava Peninsula and will increase in southern Kenora. Near-normal conditions are forecast in the Prairie Provinces’ southern extent. In British Columbia, surpluses in the Thompson and Quesnel Watersheds will shrink and pockets of surplus will emerge in the Coast Mountains.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2023 – indicates a pattern of anomalies like the prior three-months though surpluses will retreat from southern Kenora and increase in British Columbia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A state of emergency was declared in Newfoundland and Labrador where firefighters are battling the worst blazes the province has seen in 50 years. The hot, dry summer has created a tinderbox in the region where forest fires are generally uncommon. An outdoor fire ban has been extended. Several towns on the island of Newfoundland have been entirely cut off by fires - helicopters have transported food and medical supplies to the community of Harbour Breton and the Coast of Bays area.

In western Canada, a fire in British Columbia prompted evacuation of over 300 homes near Penticton in the Okanagan Valley in the province’s south. Dry vegetation and low humidity help fuel the blaze.

British Columbia often faces flooding, and to help address flood risk and mitigation the province has earmarked $29.5 million to finance projects in 11 communities.

Brampton in the Greater Toronto Area was pummeled by over a month’s worth of rain in just 24 hours in late August, leaving streets and basements flooded.

Mustard, that beloved condiment of the French, is in short supply in French cupboards, neighborhood bistros, and the culinary arsenal of elite chefs due to a poor mustard season in Canada. It seems that most of the seed used in French mustard production is actually grown in Canada, the world’s largest mustard producer, and last year’s drought in the Canadian Prairies led to a significant reduction in crop yields.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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