Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook September 2022

7 September 2022

OVERVIEW
The September 2022 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions across much of Australia. Temperatures will be exceptionally hotter than the norm in a number of regions around the world, including central Brazil and Greenland.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Across the broad expanse of Australia wetter than normal conditions are forecast from Western Australia through the vast Outback to the eastern coast. Queensland can expect extreme to exceptional precipitation surpluses while anomalies in New South Wales will be moderate to severe. Western Australia will be exceptionally wetter than normal from the Hamersley Range past the Gibson Desert. Tasmania, however, is expected to be somewhat drier than normal in its western half.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in many parts of Indonesia and in Malaysian Borneo. Exceptionally wetter than normal conditions are expected in southern New Guinea while the island’s north coast will be drier. Precipitation deficits are also predicted for northern regions of Sumatra, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and in southern Myanmar, while some moderate surpluses are expected in Peninsular Myanmar and central Vietnam.

In East Asia, the Lower and Middle Yangtze River regions in China will be much drier than normal, exceptionally drier from Taihu Lake in Jiangsu to Po Lake in Anhui. Deficits in the Yangtze Basin will moderate as they reach south into the Pearl River Watershed and north through Shandong Peninsula. Precipitation deficits are also expected in Northeast China from the Liaodong Peninsula inland. Nearby, the Korean Peninsula will be drier as well with moderate to severe deficits overall reaching exceptional intensity in Pyongyang. In Japan, central Honshu can expect some surpluses while deficits are forecast for Hokkaido in northern Japan. The Altai Mountains region in western Mongolia will be drier than normal.

South Asia can expect precipitation surplus from the Western Ghats of India through Maharashtra, moderate overall but more intense in the western part of the state and coastal regions reaching south through Kerala. The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh will see deficits as will northern Pakistan.

Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia will be moderately drier than normal. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Asian Russia in the Middle Ob River region, the Middle Yenisei River region, and north of Lake Baikal. Surpluses are also forecast in Sakha Republic, reaching severe intensity in the northern Chersky Range.

A few precipitation anomalies are expected in the Middle East. Deficits are forecast along the eastern Black Sea Coast from Georgia through the Pontic Mountains in Turkey. Mixed conditions are expected in southeastern Saudi Arabia though moderate deficits will be more pervasive. Moderate surpluses are forecast in southeastern Yemen and northern Oman.

Precipitation in Europe will be relatively normal overall with moderate surpluses from Hungary into Slovakia and from far eastern Ukraine past the Don River and Volga Uplands in Russia. Vestland, Norway will be moderately drier than normal.

In Africa, coastal areas along the Gulf of Guinea will be drier than normal from Liberia through Gabon with deficits reaching exceptional intensity. Drier than normal conditions are forecast in parts of East Africa as well from pockets in the Horn through southeastern Tanzania, though anomalies will be moderate overall. Likewise, moderate precipitation deficits are expected in: Madagascar’s southern half; Zimbabwe; northeastern South Africa and a pocket in the coastal south; and Lesotho. Uganda will be considerably wetter than normal with extreme to exceptional surpluses reaching past Lake Turkana in Kenya. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity will radiate well into eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, through Rwanda and Burundi, and north through eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and northern Eritrea. Surpluses are also expected in pockets of Chad, Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic.

Most of South America can expect normal precipitation, but moderate to severe deficits are forecast from central into southern Chile and across the border into Argentina. Deficits are also predicted for Bolivia, pockets of central Peru, and Amapá and northern Pará in northeastern Brazil. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Lower Rio Negro region in Amazonas.

In Central America and the Caribbean, Guatemala and central Honduras will be somewhat wetter than normal and Haiti will be somewhat drier.

Widespread precipitation surpluses are forecast across northern Mexico, reaching south through the state of Zacatecas. Surpluses will be moderate to severe in most regions but extreme in Durango. A path of moderate surplus will trail through the nation’s south from its namesake state to the Guatemalan border. Deficits will trace parts of the Gulf Coast in Yucatan.

In the United States, Arizona will be moderately wetter than normal as will the Big Bend region in Texas. Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in: northwestern California from the Klamath Mountains to the coast; a pocket in the Toiyabe Range in Nevada; and Alaska at the confluence of the Yukon and Porcupine Rivers in the Yukon Flats.

Precipitation will be relatively normal in Canada with moderate deficits in Quebec between the Outardes-4 Reservoir and the Manicouagan River, and moderate surpluses in Nunavut.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
A vast expanse down the middle of Brazil will be much hotter than normal with exceptionally hotter temperatures from southern Maranhão State through Tocantins, Mato Grosso, Goiás, Distrito Federal, and into Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Heat anomalies will be intense in the nation’s far north and northeast, and moderate in the west. Elsewhere in South America, moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast across the northern arc from Ecuador through the Guianas. Most of Peru will be warmer than normal with exceptionally hotter conditions in the central Andes. Temperatures are expected to be moderately warmer than normal in southwestern Bolivia, Chile, western Argentina, southern Patagonia, and parts of the Pampas.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Nearly all of Central America and the Caribbean will be warmer than normal including intensely hotter conditions in Honduras, western Cuba, and the Bahamas.

Heat anomalies will severe to extreme in Mexico’s Yucatan, southern states, a belt across the nation’s middle from Jalisco on the Pacific through Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico, and northern Baja into the northeast corner of Sonora. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast from northern Durango into Chihuahua. However, Mexico’s northwestern quadrant is expected to be much cooler than normal.

In the United States, California will be hotter than normal, particularly the state’s southern half where anomalies will be exceptional, downgrading somewhat as they reach into Arizona. Nevada and the Rocky Mountain States will be warmer than normal, exceptionally hotter in Reno. In the northern U.S., moderately warmer temperatures are forecast in Montana, northern North Dakota and Minnesota, and throughout Wisconsin. Northern Michigan can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies. The U.S. Northeast will be warmer than the norm with severe to extreme anomalies in Maine. The Southeastern states will be warmer as well, with temperatures becoming exceptionally hotter throughout most of Peninsular Florida. Alaska and Hawaii will be somewhat warmer than normal.

Warm anomalies are forecast throughout Canada, moderate overall but more intense from northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba through Nunavut. Anomalies will also be intense in eastern Canada, particularly Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.

Mediterranean Europe will be much hotter than normal, especially southern Italy. Generally moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Central Europe, Ireland, the U.K., Denmark, and southern Norway, but anomalies will be severe in Switzerland, southeastern France, and Netherlands. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are predicted in the Balkans. Temperatures in Greenland will be much hotter than normal.

Nearly all of North Africa will be warmer than normal and will include exceptional anomalies, particularly in Algeria and northern Sudan. Gabon will be considerably hotter than normal and warm anomalies of lesser intensity are expected in coastal West Africa from Guinea Bissau through Togo. Warm anomalies elsewhere include central Eritrea into Somaliland, the Ethiopian Highlands, northern Tanzania, central Angola, northeastern South Africa and the Lower Vaal River Catchment, and southeastern Madagascar. Large pockets in the center of the continent will be much cooler than normal: South Sudan into southern Sudan, and the southern Congo River Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo. Northeastern Nigeria will be somewhat cooler than normal as will northern Kenya, central Somalia, and coastal Namibia.

While normal temperatures are forecast east of the Tigris River in Iraq, much of the Middle East will be hotter than normal. Anomalies will be especially intense in the Levant, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, the Arabian Peninsula, Turkey’s southern coast, and Fars Province in Iran.

In Central Asia, severe warm anomalies are forecast in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and moderate to severe anomalies in southern and eastern Kazakhstan. In Asian Russia, warm anomalies of similar intensity are predicted bordering Mongolia, the coastal Arctic along the Kara Sea, and near the Sea of Japan. In the Kamchatka Peninsula, anomalies will be severe overall but will reach extreme intensity.

Much of India’s broad central extent will be moderately warmer than normal but exceptional heat anomalies are forecast in the Northeast and severe to extreme anomalies in the Far North, Gujarat, and parts of the Ganges Plain. Elsewhere in South Asia, exceptionally hotter temperatures will blanket Bangladesh and much of Nepal. Southern and far northern Pakistan will be hotter than normal but cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in the Middle Indus River region and the lower reaches of its tributaries. Severe to extreme heat anomalies are expected in northern Afghanistan and east of the Helmand River.

In East Asia, warm anomalies will be widespread though intensity will vary greatly. Temperatures will be exceptionally hotter than normal in Yunnan, China, and severe to exceptional in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Tibet (Xizang), and Xinjiang Uygur. Anomalies will be moderate in the Shandong Peninsula and moderate to severe in the North China Plain. In the southeast and south, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hainan, and southern Taiwan will be warmer than normal. The Korean Peninsula, Japan, and Mongolia will be warmer as well, with widespread intense anomalies in Mongolia, severe anomalies in Korea reaching extreme intensity in the border region between the North and South, and severe anomalies in southern Japan.

The prediction for Southeast Asia and the Pacific includes widespread exceptionally hotter temperatures throughout Myanmar, northern Thailand and Laos, the Philippines, the Lesser Sunda Islands and Malukus, and many regions of New Guinea. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast nearly everywhere else.

Northern Australia will be much hotter than normal from the Kimberley in the west, through Top End, Northern Territory, and Far North Queensland. Moderately cooler than normal conditions are forecast in the Hamersley Range and much of central Western Australia, Channel Country in South Australia and Queensland, and the Barwon and Lachlan River regions in New South Wales. Brisbane will be moderately warmer than normal, as will southwestern New Zealand, but New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released September 5, 2022 which includes forecasts for September 2022 through May 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued August 25 through August 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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