ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List September 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST SEPTEMBER 2022

15 September 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in June 2022 and running through May 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List September 15, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through November indicates intense water deficits in Southern California, the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho, Massachusetts, and southern Florida. Surpluses are expected in the Dakotas, southern Mississippi, the Southwest, and Appalachian Kentucky and West Virginia.

Canada: The forecast through November indicates intense water deficits in large tracts throughout the provinces’ northern regions. Deficits elsewhere include Newfoundland, Southern Ontario, and from Montreal to Trois-Rivières in Quebec.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through November indicates widespread water surpluses in northwestern Mexico and Durango, and deficits in northern Baja. Central America can expect moderate to extreme surpluses.

South America: The forecast through November indicates intense water deficits in Amapá and northern Pará in Brazil, northwestern Venezuela, southern Chile, and the city of Buenos Aires and nearby regions. Areas with a forecast of surplus include central Colombia, the Orinoco Delta, and far eastern Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread, particularly from France through Germany and in southern Scandinavia. Areas with intense deficits include Slovakia, central Sweden, and surrounding Lake Geneva.

Africa: The forecast through November indicates water deficits in northwest Africa, northern Sudan, coastal Liberia through Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Surpluses will be widespread in the central Sahel and in East Africa from Uganda through Tanzania.

Middle East: The forecast through November indicates intense water deficits in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia; southern Iraq from the Euphrates to the Tigris River; and western Georgia. Deficits will be widespread in Iran. Surpluses are expected in Turkey near Konya and in the Kizilirmak River Basin.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through November indicates water deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and Khakassia, southeast of Baikal, and west of the Sea of Okhotsk in Russia. Widespread surpluses are forecast in the Western Siberian Plain and much of the Lena River Watershed.

South Asia: The forecast through November indicates widespread water surpluses in central, southern, western, and far northern India, and exceptional surpluses in Pakistan and across the border well into Afghanistan. Areas of deficit include northern Afghanistan, Uttarakhand, and central Assam.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will persist in many regions including widespread severe to exceptional anomalies from Cambodia into southern Vietnam and Laos, and anomalies of varying intensity in the Philippines and Indonesia.

East Asia: The forecast through November indicates widespread, intense water deficits in the Yangtze Watershed, Southeast China, Guangxi, Yunnan, and South Korea. Intense surpluses will persist in the Yellow River Watershed, North China Plain, and Northeast.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses in eastern Australia will increase, reaching from Wide Bay-Burnett in Queensland to Canberra. Anomalies will be especially widespread in eastern New South Wales. Widespread deficits will persist in Tasmania.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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