South Asia: Intense surplus will persist in Pakistan

20 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses in much of central, southern, and western India. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Godavari River Basin, central and southern Karnataka, western Maharashtra, southern Madhya Pradesh, and southern Rajasthan.

In the north, surpluses are predicted from Punjab through Jammu and Kashmir, intense in the far north. Mixed conditions are forecast in India’s Far Northeast, including deficits in Assam and surpluses in many other areas.

Widespread deficits of varying intensity are expected throughout the Ganges Plain including exceptional anomalies from northern Uttar Pradesh into Uttarakhand and severe anomalies in Bihar. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in India’s southernmost tip in Tamil Nadu. Nearby in Sri Lanka, however, surpluses are forecast in the southwest.

Exceptional surpluses will cover most of central and southern Pakistan and surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the north. In Afghanistan, severe to extreme surpluses are forecast east of the Helmand River, becoming exceptional in pockets of the south. Moderate deficits are forecast in the north and pockets in the southwest.

In Nepal, surpluses of varying intensity are predicted in the Himalayas and Middle Hills regions; some moderate deficits will skirt the southwestern border. Bhutan will also see surpluses as will much of Bangladesh’s northern half, and surpluses will trace the path of the Padma River as it joins the Meghna to the Bay of Bengal. Moderate deficits are expected in the Ganges Delta.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates widespread surpluses in central, southern, western, and far northern India. Anomalies will be severe in the vast Godavari River Basin and of even greater intensity in western Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, southern Rajasthan into northern Gujarat, and India’s far north. Deficits will linger in Uttarakhand and small pockets in the Ganges Plain and increase in central Assam in the Far Northeast. Moderate surpluses will linger in Mizoram and in Bangladesh’s far north and northeast. In Pakistan, widespread surpluses are expected in much of the nation, exceptional in many regions west of the Indus River and in the south. The southwest can expect transitional conditions (pink/purple) as deficits emerge. Exceptional surpluses will extend into Afghanistan to the Helmand River. Deficits are forecast in the north and a few pockets in the west. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Nepal and western Bhutan.

From December 2022 through February 2023, surpluses will remain widespread in India, downgrading slightly. Transitions are forecast from Gujarat into Rajasthan and deficits will emerge in northern Rajasthan. Deficits will linger in Uttarakhand and increase in Assam. In Pakistan, transitions will increase in the south, exceptional surpluses will persist from central Balochistan into Sindh, and surpluses in the north will shrink somewhat. Exceptional surpluses in eastern Afghanistan will downgrade and deficits elsewhere will shrink though small, intense pockets will emerge in the north. Surpluses, generally moderate, will persist in Nepal, Bhutan, and northern and eastern Bangladesh, and Mizoram.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2023 – indicates persistent, widespread surpluses in India and exceptional surpluses in Pakistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Unprecedented flooding triggered by monsoon rainfall has left a third of Pakistan under water. Since the beginning of the season in June, flooding has affected 33 million people in the country, nearly half of whom are children, and claimed around 1,500 lives. Unusually high temperatures caused glacial melt that, combined with an early and heavy monsoon, sent water racing through the Indus River system, destroying 1.2 million homes, 5,000 kilometers of roads, and 240 bridges.

Medical authorities report that over 2.5 million people in flood-hit areas have contracted infectious diseases. In Sindh Province, respiratory infections and waterborne diseases have surged, including asthma, diarrhea, malaria, dengue, and skin diseases. Early estimates indicate that Pakistan’s economic losses could reach $30 billion.

Torrential rainfall, roughly double that of normal, took a toll in the Indian metropolis of Bengaluru, known as the Indian Silicon Valley. Water service was disrupted as pumping stations flooded, power outages occurred, and neighborhoods became islands, leaving residents marooned. Tech workers hitched rides to office hubs on tractors and those with home power followed work-from-home directives. In northern India, at least 12 people died as floodwaters collapsed buildings.

Heavy rainfall in western Nepal contributed to landslides that killed 17 people.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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