Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will moderate in Mangystau, KZ

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will moderate in Mangystau, KZ

24 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2023 indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and severe deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Syr Darya River in the south. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in far northern Kazakhstan, extreme to exceptional surpluses in the Alataw Mountains and Lower Ile River region in the southeast, and surpluses of generally lesser intensity in the eastern Kazakh Upland, the far south, and pockets in the west.

Severe to extreme deficits are expected in eastern Turkmenistan and eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses are forecast throughout much of Kyrgyzstan and in western Tajikistan, around Lake Aydar in southeastern Uzbekistan, and a pocket of coastal Turkmenistan.

In Asian Russia, intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob, but widespread surpluses are forecast from the central Ural Mountains through much of the Western Siberian Plain. Deficits are expected in the Central Siberian Plateau and Siberia’s far south. Deficits are also forecast in Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal, but exceptional surpluses are expected in Transbaikal’s Zabaykalsky Krai. Surpluses will also be exceptional in the Tyung River Watershed of northern Sakha Republic. Deficits are forecast in the Lena River Delta and west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob in Russia will increase and intensify. Widespread surpluses, while shrinking and downgrading, will persist from the central Ural Mountains through the Western Siberian Plain, and a pocket of intense deficit will emerge around the city of Surgut on the Middle Ob River. Deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau will shrink and downgrade, but deficits will increase in southern Siberia and emerge in Irkutsk Oblast. Exceptional surpluses will persist in the Tyung River area of northern Sakha Republic. Surpluses in Transbaikal will shrink but remain exceptional in central Zabaykalsky Krai. Deficits in the Lena Delta and west of the Sea of Okhotsk will shrink and moderate.

In Central Asia, deficits in Mangystau, Kazakhstan, will moderate and moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan as transitions occur. Surpluses are forecast near Lake Aydar in Uzbekistan and south of the Zarafshon River. Surpluses are expected in many regions of Kyrgyzstan and intense surpluses will persist in central Tajikistan as some moderate deficits linger in the east. In Kazakhstan, intense surpluses are forecast in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in the north, along the Ile River and in the Alataw Mountains in the southeast, and in pockets of the south and west.

From September through November, extreme deficits will persist spanning the Gulf of Ob and will increase in nearby regions to the west and east. Surpluses in the Western Siberian Plain will downgrade and deficits near Surgut will nearly disappear. Deficits will moderate in the Central Siberian Plateau and west of the Sea of Okhotsk and will shrink in Irkutsk and southern Siberia. In Central Asia, deficits will nearly disappear. Surpluses are forecast in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan, and in Kyrgyzstan, central Tajikistan, and the Kyzylkum Desert.

The forecast for the final months – December 2022 through February 2023 – indicates that deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau and Irkutsk, and emerge in the Upper Tobal River Watershed and other pockets across northern Kazakhstan. Surpluses in the Western Siberian Plain will shrink.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall produced flooding in southwestern Kyrgyzstan at the end of May, affecting many residential and public buildings in Jalal-Abad Region. Water levels on the Kara Darya River near the airport rose, flooding nearby croplands.

Several other areas reported road damage due to mudflows including Kadamdzhai district and Leilek district in Bakten Region.

The government of Kazakhstan announced plans to build nine water reservoirs by 2025 with accumulated capacity of 1.7 cubic km.

The death toll from wildfires in southwestern Siberia has risen to ten. Since the beginning of the wildfire season, 306,900 hectares have burned in Siberia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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