Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook July 2022

6 July 2022

OVERVIEW
Our July 2022 Outlook indicates that temperatures will be exceptionally hotter than normal across vast extents of Brazil and China. Wetter than normal conditions are expected in Queensland, Australia, particularly in the northwest.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Precipitation surpluses of severe intensity are forecast near Brisbane in Queensland, Australia, and a wide path of surplus is expected from there to the northwest and into Northern Territory. Surpluses will become extreme in the Mackenzie River region west of Rockhampton, Queensland, and exceptional in Mount Isa in the state’s northwest. Surpluses are also expected in the Cape York Peninsula of Far North Queensland. From Brisbane, surpluses will continue south through eastern New South Wales and will be severe to extreme in NSW’s New England and North Coast regions. Moderate deficits are forecast in Tasmania from Hobart through the Derwent Estuary to the west coast. Near-normal precipitation is expected in New Zealand and moderate surpluses in New Caledonia.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, conditions will be considerably wetter than normal in the Lesser Sunda Islands and much of New Guinea though intense precipitation deficits will trace New Guinea’s north coast, reaching through New Britain and the Solomon Islands. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in Indonesia and a few areas of moderate deficit in northern Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia. Moderate to severe surpluses are predicted for central Laos, northern Vietnam, and central Myanmar, but deficits are forecast in northern Myanmar.

The forecast for nations in East Asia includes moderate precipitation surpluses in China’s Pearl River Basin in the south and in Fujian and Taiwan. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are expected in Sichuan, and generally moderate deficits from eastern Tibet (Xizang) into Qinghai. Deficits in far western Inner Mongolia will extend through western Mongolia, becoming severe. Near-normal precipitation is forecast for the Korean Peninsula. A few pockets of moderate deficit are expected in Japan.

In South Asia, deficits of varying intensity are predicted through the Western Ghats in India, becoming exceptional in northeastern Karnataka. Likewise, India’s Far Northeast will see deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional. Deficits will be moderate to severe overall in northern and eastern Bangladesh, Bhutan, and from eastern Nepal into India. Some areas of moderate surplus are forecast from western Madhya Pradesh, India trailing into Rajasthan. Punjab in northern India will be moderately drier than normal and pockets of deficit are forecast in northern Pakistan including the metropolis of Lahore in Pakistani Punjab.

Mixed precipitation is forecast in Central Asia with pockets of moderate deficit in western Turkmenistan and western Uzbekistan, and a few pockets of surplus in their eastern regions. Moderate deficits are forecast in central Tajikistan and from northwestern Kyrgyzstan into the Alatau Mountains in Kazakhstan. Western Kazakhstan can also expect moderate precipitation deficits though anomalies will be severe in central Mangystau Region. In Pavlodar Region in the northeast, moderate surpluses are forecast east of the Ertis (Irtysh) River. Precipitation will be relatively normal in Asian Russia with some pockets of moderate surplus in near Alden in Sakha Republic and in the Russian Far East south of the Anadyr River.

In European Russia, moderate deficits are forecast in TransVolga and the Middle and Lower Volga regions, but deficits will reach severe intensity in the republics of Southern Russia. Elsewhere in Europe, drier than normal conditions are forecast from northern France through Belgium, Luxembourg, and the southern Netherlands into western Germany with moderate to severe precipitation deficits. Deficits will be severe in Paris and Brussels. Deficits will also follow France’s central Mediterranean Coast. Moderate deficits are forecast in England and Wales. The eastern region of North Macedonia will be moderately wetter than normal.

The Middle East can expect deficits in central Turkey and from eastern Georgia into its smaller neighbors, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and south along the border of Turkey and Iran. A pocket of severe surplus is expected on the Tigris River south of Mosul, Iraq, and deficits in southern Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia.

Notable in the precipitation forecast for Africa, the Horn of Africa is expected to be wetter than normal from eastern Ethiopia through much of Somaliland and northern Somalia with surpluses of varying intensity. A pocket of moderate surplus is forecast in north-central Ethiopia, but nearby in the northwest deficits are forecast reaching exceptional intensity in the Tigray Region. A pocket of moderate deficit is predicted at the southern end of the Ethiopian Highlands. Kenya can expect intense deficits in the west, crossing over into Uganda. Deficits of lesser intensity are forecast in northeastern Tanzania, but surpluses are expected in the central south and many pockets in northern Zambia. Surpluses are also forecast in southern Zambia near Lake Zambesi. Elsewhere on the continent, Central African Republic will be moderately drier in the east, and moderate deficits are forecast in central Senegal. Areas of surplus include Morocco near the Strait of Gibraltar, north-central Algeria, and parts of the Benue River Basin in Nigeria.

Pockets of surplus, primarily moderate, are expected across the northern arc of South America in Colombia, Venezuela, northern Guyana, and the northern Amazon Basin in Brazil. Brazil’s small, northeastern states can also expect to be moderately wetter than normal. Moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast for many pockets through the Cordillera Orientals in Peru and Bolivia; pockets of Brazil from Mato Grosso do Sul through northern São Paulo State, Minas Gerias, and into Bahia; in Chile’s Coquimbo Region; and pockets of the eastern Pampas and Argentine Patagonia.

In Central America and the Caribbean, moderate surpluses are forecast for Belize, Costa Rica, and easternmost Cuba, but surpluses will be more intense in Nicaragua, Jamaica, and the southern Bahamas. Haiti will be drier than normal with severe deficits.

Drier than normal conditions are forecast for many states in eastern Mexico including Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and along the Gulf Coast through Veracruz and its inland neighbors into northern Oaxaca. Deficits will range from moderate to extreme. On Mexico’s west coast, the shared border of Michoacán and Guerrero will be wetter than normal.

In the United States, pockets of Nevada will be somewhat drier than normal. Moderately wetter than normal conditions are forecast for several areas of the country including central Oregon, north-central Colorado, northern Kansas into Nebraska, and pockets of Virginia, Tennessee, and South Carolina.

In Canada, moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in north-central British Columbia, northern Saskatchewan, northwestern Ontario, and southern Newfoundland.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Much of the northern breadth of South America will be warmer than normal but most notably, exceptionally hotter temperatures will dominate a vast expanse of Brazil from Amapá in the north into Paraná in the south and from the Madeira River in Amazonas through Piauí. Much of the surrounding area of Brazil can expect primarily severe anomalies, gradually moderating in the east. Severe to extreme heat anomalies will dominate the Guianas. While much of the northern portion of the Orinoco River Watershed in Venezuela can expect normal temperatures, the remainder of the nation will experience warmer than normal conditions reaching exceptional intensity in the Ventuari and Caroni River regions, southern tributaries of the Orinoco.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Much of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru will be warmer than the norm with exceptionally hotter temperatures through the Peruvian Andes. Heat anomalies are also forecast through the Altiplano in Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina with exceptional anomalies in the Upper Pilcomayo River region of Bolivia. Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in a pocket of the Gran Chaco in northern Argentina and near the Gulf of Corcovado in southern Chile.

Many areas of Central America will be warmer than normal with moderate to severe anomalies. In the Caribbean, westernmost Cuba will be extremely hotter than normal and Havana will be exceptionally hotter. Severe heat anomalies are forecast for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Puerto Rico.

While the shared border of Sonora and Chihuahua in northern Mexico will be moderately cooler than normal, many other regions of the country will be much warmer. From the Baja Peninsula into western Sonora, heat anomalies will be severe to exceptional overall. Southeastern Chihuahua will be moderately warmer than normal, but exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast throughout neighboring Coahuila and through the northern regions of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, downgrading in the south. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected throughout the central Mexican states from Nayarit on the Pacific through Veracruz on the Gulf. In southern Mexico, severe to extreme heat anomalies are forecast in Oaxaca and Chiapas while the northern Yucatán Peninsula will be moderately warmer than normal.

In the United States, the Pacific Northwest, much of the Rocky Mountain region, and Nevada will be moderately to severely warmer than normal, as will northern Arizona, but the state’s southwest quadrant will be exceptionally hotter, including Phoenix. The area from southern Oklahoma to the Dallas/Ft. Worth region will be moderately warmer than normal with conditions reaching into southeastern New Mexico. But exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast in Texas from eastern Big Bend Country into Hill Country and in southern Texas, with anomalies of varying intensity up the Gulf Coast past Houston.

Portions of the Ohio River Basin can expect moderate to severe heat anomalies while anomalies in the Lower Mississippi River Basin will be extreme in western Tennessee and exceptional spanning the border between Louisiana and Mississippi. In the U.S. East, warm anomalies will be widespread in Maine - exceptional in Augusta - and will trace the coastline south becoming widespread in Florida. Moderate anomalies are forecast for Georgia, but more intense conditions are expected across a belt of central Florida from Tampa past Orlando and in the state’s far south and central Panhandle regions. In Alaska, temperatures in Anchorage and throughout the southeast will be moderately warmer than normal but exceptionally hotter conditions are forecast along the Arctic Coast.

Commanding attention on the temperature map, much of Canada’s vast territories from Yukon into Nunavut, as well as the northern halves of British Columbia and the Prairie Provinces, will be much hotter than normal with extreme to exceptional anomalies dominating. On the Atlantic, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected from Newfoundland and Labrador through the Maritimes with extremely to exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures widespread in Nova Scotia.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for nearly all of Europe though anomalies will generally be mild to moderate. Italy, however, can expect extreme to exceptional anomalies in Sicily and Sardinia, severe to exceptional anomalies from Rome through the south, and primarily moderate anomalies in the north though severe near Venice and the mouth of the Po River. Central and western Spain can expect severe anomalies, becoming extreme in Extremadura in the west. Severe anomalies are also forecast in western Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, and Balkan nations along the Adriatic Sea.

Warmer than normal temperatures of varying intensity are expected across North Africa, West Africa, around the Gulf of Guinea, and in southern Africa. Widespread severe to exceptional anomalies are forecast in Algeria, Mauritania, northern Mali, and northern Niger. Pockets of intense warm anomalies are predicted for north-central Sudan; the Brazzaville/Kinshasa region of the Congos and the Lokoro River Watershed in DRC; around Nairobi, Kenya; north-central Namibia; and near Uppington in Northern Cape, South Africa, and Limpopo Province. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for the Ethiopian Highlands, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Areas with a forecast of cooler than normal temperatures include the Sudd in South Sudan; the Horn region from eastern Ethiopia through Somaliland, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya; the Lualaba River Basin and the southern Congo River Basin in DRC; south-central Tanzania; and Mozambique’s northeastern corner.

In the Middle East, most of Saudi Arabia will be much hotter than normal as will the UAE. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in Yemen and Qatar, while northern Oman and Yemen’s southern coast will be cooler than normal. Iraq can expect moderately warmer temperatures west of the Euphrates but intensely hotter conditions in the south. In Iran, severe to extreme heat anomalies are forecast throughout the Zagros Mountains in the west including the city of Shiraz; western Kerman Province; and the Lut Desert. Much cooler than normal conditions are forecast for southern Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Temperatures along the eastern Mediterranean Sea and southern Turkey will be moderately warmer than the norm, but Turkey’s Black Sea Coast region will be much cooler than normal as will coastal Georgia.

In Central Asia and Russia, the Kazakh Steppe in northern Kazakhstan will be somewhat cooler than normal and cool anomalies of greater intensity are forecast in the nation’s southeast crossing into Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan’s eastern half will be moderately to extremely warmer than normal. In Asian Russia, warm anomalies are expected in the Russian Far East including severe to exceptional anomalies near the Sea of Okhotsk and the northern Sea of Japan. Anomalies will reach extreme intensity in the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Throughout East Asia, temperatures will be warmer than normal and will include many areas of intensely hotter conditions. A vast expanse of China will be exceptionally hotter than normal from western Inner Mongolia south through Qinghai, Tibet (Xizang), much of Sichuan, Chongqing, and Yunnan. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected nearly everywhere else in China and anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the southeastern provinces of Jiangxi, Fujian, and Guangdong, and in Jiangsu farther north. Heat anomalies in South Korea will be exceptional, and only slightly less intense in North Korea. Likewise, exceptionally hotter temperatures are expected in much of Japan, downgrading but still severe in Hokkaido. In Mongolia, severe warm anomalies are forecast in the south and moderate anomalies across the north.

In the nations of South Asia, Bangladesh stands out with a forecast of widespread, exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures that will reach through India’s Far Northeast and Bhutan. Heat anomalies of varying intensity are expected throughout Nepal, becoming intense on the Tibetan border. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in India from Maharashtra’s southern half through Tamil Nadu where temperatures will become exceptionally hotter than normal. Warm anomalies are also forecast up India’s east coast on the Bay of Bengal, becoming intense in West Bengal. Far northern India will be hotter than normal as will Sri Lanka. In the center of India, moderately cooler than normal temperatures are forecast from eastern Rajasthan into northern Madhya Pradesh. Intense heat anomalies will form a path from the source of the Helmand River west of Kabul, Afghanistan, leading southeast well into Pakistan to the Indus River. Far northern Pakistan and Afghanistan will also be warmer than normal.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal throughout nearly all of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in many areas including Myanmar, the Philippines, and many regions of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

Southeastern Australia will be moderately to severely warmer than normal from Rockhampton, Queensland through central and eastern Victoria. Anomalies will be severe in Brisbane, Sydney, and Canberra, and moderate in Melbourne. Far North Queensland will be much hotter than normal as will Top End, Northern Territory. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast for the Kimberley in Western Australia, and also for Tasmania. In New Zealand, severe to extreme heat anomalies are forecast for South Island. Much of North Island will be moderately warmer than normal though anomalies will intensify north of Auckland. Temperatures in New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter than the norm.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released July 5, 2022 which includes forecasts for July 2022 through March 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued June 24 through June 30, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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