ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List July 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JULY 2022

15 July 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in April 2022 and running through March 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List July 15, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through September indicates that, while many regions will see water deficits, intense anomalies will be limited. Areas of deficit include California, the Rockies, Upper Mississippi Basin, and East Coast. Widespread surpluses are forecast in North Dakota.

Canada: The forecast through September indicates water deficits in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, large areas of Quebec and Ontario, and northern Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern British Columbia and northwestern Saskatchewan.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through September indicates that water deficits in northern Mexico will shrink and surpluses will emerge in the Yaqui River Basin. Deficits are expected in San Luis Potosí, Puebla, and Haiti. Surpluses are expected in Central America.

South America: The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits in central and southeastern Brazil, central Peru, and Chile, as well as deficits in many other regions. Surpluses are expected in Colombia and in Brazil’s eastern tip.

Europe: The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits, and though exceptional deficits will shrink - persisting in Estonia, central Sweden, Slovakia, central Ukraine, the Rhône River, and the Valdecañas Reservoir in Spain - anomalies will be severe to extreme in many regions.

Africa: The forecast through September indicates water deficits of varying intensity across North Africa, and in western Gabon, Kenya, and central Botswana. Areas of surplus include Tanzania, Mozambique, northern Zambia, and South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through September indicates water deficits in many regions, especially intense and widespread in Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, and Isfahan Province in Iran. Surpluses are expected on Turkey’s central Black Sea Coast leading into the Kizilirmak River Watershed.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will moderate in Mangystau, Kazakhstan and increase in Turkmenistan. Deficits in Russia include the Gulf of Ob past Norilsk, the Vilyuy Reservoir, and the Lena Delta. Surpluses are forecast in the Middle Ob River region.

South Asia: The forecast through September indicates water surpluses in western Madhya Pradesh and pockets of southern India; Sri Lanka; northeastern Bangladesh; and from west-central Pakistan into Afghanistan. Deficits are forecast in pockets of Afghanistan’s north, west, and south.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Deficits are forecast in western Cambodia, central Sumatra, New Guinea’s north and southeastern coasts, New Britain and the Solomons.

East Asia: The forecast through September indicates that areas of water surplus include Southeast China, Northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, and North Korea. Deficits are forecast in northeastern Sichuan and southern Honshu, Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through September indicates that widespread water surpluses in eastern Australia will increase. Deficits will persist in Tasmania, emerge in Arnhem Land and the Kimberley in northern Australia, and shrink in New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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