Canada: Water surplus forecast in S Manitoba

24 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through February 2023 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in the eastern half of the nation.

Deficits will be exceptional in many regions including southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, the Smallwood Reservoir region in Labrador, the Manicouagan Reservoir region in Quebec, and a vast area near Lake Mistassini. Deficits will be somewhat less intense in Southern Ontario east of Georgian Bay, while a small pocket of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along Ontario’s eastern border reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario and will include exceptional anomalies in northern Kenora District though surpluses are forecast for southern Kenora.

Widespread exceptional deficits will belt central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Surpluses are forecast south of Lake Winnipeg and near the U.S. border. Elsewhere in the Prairie Provinces, deficits are forecast in a path across southern Saskatchewan leading to Regina and also in the center of the province, but widespread surpluses are forecast in the northwest leading west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. In Alberta, intense deficits are expected in the south, the Middle Athabasca River region, and the northwest, and surpluses north of Banff.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia leading east into the Columbia Watershed, but exceptional deficits are expected in East Kootenay in the province’s southeast corner. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in the Upper Fraser Watershed and severe deficits in the Nechako River Watershed. In British Columbia’s central far north, exceptional deficits will lead from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that vast areas of deficit will persist from Quebec into Labrador and surrounding Lake Mistassini and will increase in the Ungava Peninsula. Deficits will increase in Nova Scotia, persist in the Miramichi River region of New Brunswick, and emerge in the Gaspé Peninsula. Surpluses will linger between the Upper Gatineau and St. Maurice Rivers in Quebec. In Ontario, deficits will be intense along the province’s eastern border and east of Georgian Bay and will increase north of Lake Erie as surpluses retreat. Much of Northern Ontario will also see deficits though moderate surpluses will persist in pockets of southern Kenora.

Surpluses are forecast in Manitoba south of Lake Winnipeg and along the U.S. border. Widespread, intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, and surpluses of varying intensity will increase in southern British Columbia from the North Thompson and Quesnel River Basins through the northern Columbia River Basin into Alberta. Deficits will moderate in a pocket of south-central Saskatchewan approaching Regina but will be intense in the center of the province. In Alberta, deficits are forecast in the south, the Middle Athabasca River, and far northwest. Areas of deficit in British Columbia include Vancouver Island, the Nechako River, Lake Williston, and the far north.

From September through November, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably though large pockets will persist. Surpluses will nearly disappear in much of the nation’s eastern half, will shrink in southern British Columbia but emerge in the Skeena River region as deficits recede. Southern Saskatchewan will normalize.

The forecast for the final months – December 2022 through February 2023 – indicates a pattern of anomalies like the prior three-months though deficits will shrink in Quebec and surpluses will shrink in southern British Columbia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Alberta ranchers are anxiously watching for needed rainfall after last summer’s drought forced many to cull herds and left them with little feed stockpiled. Without significant precipitation, pastures won’t develop and stock reduction may again become a hard reality. Sourcing affordable feed for remaining animals has become challenging across the Prairies as feed prices sky-rocket.

Precipitation from eastern Saskatchewan into Manitoba has been well above normal, causing a different set of problems. May rainfall was 150 to 200 percent of normal, leaving fields too wet to seed and cattle standing in mud, rendering them susceptible to foot ailments.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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