Australia & New Zealand: Water surplus will persist in E Australia

24 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses in eastern Australia from the Wide Bay-Burnett region of Queensland through East Gippsland, Victoria.

Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but more widespread in New South Wales where surpluses will reach extreme intensity in a pocket of the North Coast. Surpluses will extend inland to the Macquarie and Lachlan Rivers. In Queensland’s Far North, surpluses are expected north of the Holroyd River in Cape York Peninsula.

Deficits are expected in northern Australia along the Gulf of Carpentaria in Northern Territory and in the Fitzroy and Ord River regions in the Kimberley of Western Australia. In the nation’s southwest corner, generally moderate to severe deficits are forecast from Geraldton past Perth and Busselton to Albany. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Upper Avon River catchment. Some pockets of surplus are expected in the Great Victoria Desert and near the central coast of Western Australia. Severe to exceptional deficits will dominate western Tasmania, the Derwent Estuary, and Hobart.

In New Zealand, extreme deficits are predicted for Southland, Otago, and a few other pockets in South Island. Surpluses are forecast in coastal Butler in the northwest and coastal points on North Island, including East Cape.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that while downgrading, surpluses will remain widespread in eastern Australia from the Wide Bay-Burnett region of Queensland (QLD), through the Murray-Darling Basin into East Gippsland, Victoria. Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but extreme in a pocket north of Dubbo, New South Wales (NSW), and a pocket in the Southern Downs area of QLD. Surpluses in the Cape York Peninsula will increase, as will those in a pocket of the Atherton Tableland in Far North, QLD. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Top End, Northern Territory (NT). In Western Australia (WA), surpluses will shrink in the Avon River region and deficits north of Perth will moderate while those along the southwestern coast from Mandurah to Albany intensify. Pockets of moderate surplus will re-emerge in the Great Victorian Desert and western Nullarbor Plain, and some moderate deficits will linger south of Kalgoorlie. In coastal Victoria, pockets of deficits are forecast on either side of Melbourne. And in Tasmania, deficits in the west and south will downgrade slightly but severe deficits are forecast for Hobart and the Derwent Estuary.

Anomalies in New Zealand will shrink but intense deficits are forecast in the southeast in Canterbury and Otago, and surpluses will increase somewhat along South Island’s northwest coast while nearly disappearing from North Island. Moderate deficits are expected in northern New Caledonia.

From September through November, widespread surpluses will persist in eastern Australia with severe anomalies increasing between the Macquarie and Macintyre Rivers in NSW. Surpluses will emerge in the Maranoa/Balonne area of QLD’s South West Region and the Buckland Tableland; increase in the Atherton Tableland in the north; and shrink in the Cape York Peninsula. A few pockets of deficit will linger in Top End, NT, but deficits elsewhere in mainland Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand will nearly disappear. Some surpluses will linger in coastal points of North Island, New Zealand, and moderate surpluses will emerge in New Caledonia as deficits retreat.

The forecast for the final months – December 2022 through February 2023 – indicates that surpluses in eastern Australia will shrink but remain widespread. Surpluses will increase in Far North QLD and emerge in Top End, NT.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Insurance estimates of flood losses earlier this year in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia have been revised upwards with insured losses now totaling AU $4.3 billion (US $2.97 billion) assessed on 216,465 claims.

As of mid-June, 3,000 people in New South Wales are reportedly still waiting for promised natural disaster rental support, unable to supply required documentation that washed away along with their flooded homes. The state’s disaster relief program for housing support totaling AU $248 million was initiated in March but only 16 percent of those who applied have received aid as the program approaches its deadline of 24 June.

Burrendong Dam on the Macquarie River in New South Wales has topped 100 percent capacity since September of 2021 despite frequent water releases. Dam managers are charged with the difficult task - almost weekly during this continued period of excessive rainfall - of purging excess water from the dam without flooding downstream communities. Many storages in the Murray-Darling system were at full capacity as of 6 June, according to the Federal Bureau of Meteorology.

Though recent rainfall has ended meteorological drought in Southland and Otago, New Zealand, months-long dry conditions are expected to continue through October, keeping the region’s official drought classification in place.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags