Middle East: Water deficits forecast to increase

23 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending February 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Saudi Arabia and the small Persian Gulf nations, over half of Iraq, and many regions of Iran and Turkey.

On the Arabian Peninsula, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast throughout much of Saudi Arabia with extreme anomalies in Riyadh Province and exceptional anomalies in the metropolis of Medina. In Yemen, exceptional surpluses are forecast northeast of Sanaa and pockets of deficit elsewhere in Yemen and Oman. Deficits will be exceptional in United Arab Emirates and severe in Qatar.

In Iraq, deficits ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast west of the Euphrates and in the Lower Tigris River region as well as in Kuwait. Pockets of surplus are forecast around Kirkuk. Iran can expect exceptional deficits in the central provinces and in Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf, and severe to extreme deficits in much of Isfahan Province. Surpluses are expected on the central Caspian Sea Coast, in a pocket south of Lake Urmia, in the central Zagros Mountains, and near the Strait of Hormuz.

Mixed conditions are forecast in the Levant including surpluses in central Israel and central Syria with deficits elsewhere. In Turkey, deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the west, surpluses from Konya past Lake Tuz, and intense deficits in the Ceyhan River Watershed in southern Turkey and the Upper Murat River region in the east.

Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates deficits in many regions, moderate to severe overall but more intense and widespread in Saudi Arabia. Anomalies will be exceptional in central Saudi Arabia, but transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also expected. Deficits, generally moderate, are forecast in Qatar, UAE, and northwestern Oman. Surpluses are forecast in Yemen’s northwestern corner. In the Levant, mild to moderate deficits are expected along with transitions. Deficits are forecast west of the Euphrates and in the southern Tigris Basin. Anomalies will be intense in Baghdad and the lower Gharraf Canal. Some pockets of surplus are forecast in the northeast leading into Iran. Central Iran can expect generally moderate deficits and transitional conditions. In Fars Province near the Persian Gulf deficits will be moderate overall but more intense near the city of Shiraz. Surpluses are forecast on the Caspian Coast, south of Lake Urmia, and near the Strait of Hormuz. Deficits are forecast in western Turkey, extreme near Ankara, and in the south in the Ceyhan River Basin. Surpluses are forecast from Konya past Lake Tuz, and in Cyprus and Azerbaijan. Eastern Turkey and Georgia will experience mixed conditions.

From September through November, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, but exceptional anomalies will persist in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Moderate deficits will persist in many pockets of central Iran and will increase in Fars Province, becoming extreme in the south. Severe deficits will emerge in the Upper Atrak River region in northeastern Iran. Surpluses will persist near Tehran and Lake Urmia; in Cyprus; and near Lake Tuz in Turkey, increasing in the Kizilirmak River Watershed. Surpluses will emerge in northern Israel. Deficits will persist in Turkey’s Upper Ceyhan River region.

In the final quarter – December 2022 through February 2023 – near-normal conditions are forecast overall with deficits in Riyadh and along the northern Red Sea in Saudi Arabia and a pocket in the Upper Ceyhan River in Turkey. Surpluses are forecast in central Syria, near Turkey’s Lake Tuz, pockets in northern Iran and in northern Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
June rainfall in Turkey produced flooding in five provinces that resulted in three fatalities in Ankara Province, one in Karaman Province, and one in Burdur Province. In Burdur, landslides were also reported, 30 buildings destroyed, and dozens of livestock killed. Floodwaters in the capital city, Ankara, dragged automobiles through the streets. Some streets in the town of Tava in Denizli Province were inundated as well, and agricultural regions in the province saw significant damage.

Yet another in an increasing series of destructive sandstorms hit drought-prone Iraq in mid-June, halting air travel at Baghdad International Airport. Najaf Airport in central Iraq suspended flights for a few hours as well. The ministry of health reported that hospitals treated 250 people for suffocation.

A 3,400-year-old city has re-emerged from the depleted Tigris River in southern Iraq as the ruins periodically do during times of drought. The ancient city of Zakhiku was submerged after the Mosul Dam was constructed in 1980. The nation’s water minister says that water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates are down 60 percent from last year.

Exacerbating conditions, June temperatures in Iraq quickly jumped to 50°C (122°F), leading to depleted water in the country’s marshes where water buffalo herders struggle to keep their animals healthy.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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