Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits will persist in Chihuahua

23 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending February 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the Baja Peninsula, across the Gulf of California in Sonora, and in Mexico’s north-central and eastern states.

Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in much of Baja and exceptional in the Colorado River Delta. Severe to exceptional deficits are also forecast in Coahuila, framed by severe to extreme deficits in eastern Chihuahua and Nuevo León.

Deficits of varying intensity, including pockets of exceptional anomalies, are forecast for Tamaulipas on the Gulf of Mexico, downgrading as they reach through the smaller land-locked states to the south and Veracruz. Some isolated pockets of moderate deficit are expected on the west coast in Sinaloa and Nayarit. In the Yucatan Peninsula, moderate surpluses are forecast in central regions.

Moderate surpluses are also expected in pockets of Central America with more intense anomalies in Panama. Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas can expect surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade considerably. Moderate deficits are forecast in Baja, and generally moderate to severe deficits in southeastern Chihuahua, pockets of Coahuila, southern Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and Puebla. Surpluses are predicted for the Yucatan Peninsula and coastal Oaxaca. Anomalies will be moderate overall but exceptional in central Campeche. In Central America, surpluses of varying intensity are expected in Belize, Guatemala, coastal Honduras, western Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and Panama. Surpluses are also forecast in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas, and some deficits in Hispaniola.

From September through November, moderate deficits will linger in Baja, northwestern Sonora, and southeastern Chihuahua. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in land-locked Hidalgo, and moderate deficits trailing from Puebla into Veracruz and Oaxaca. Moderate deficits are also forecast in El Salvador, but pockets of moderate surplus are forecast from southern Nicaragua into Panama. Cuba and the Bahamas can expect surpluses; Jamaica will transition out of surplus with pockets of deficit emerging; and near-normal conditions are forecast for Hispaniola.

The forecast for the final three months – December 2022 through January 2023 – indicates that deficits in southeastern Chihuahua will increase and intensify somewhat, becoming severe. Deficits are also forecast for Hidalgo, between the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of Tehuantepec, and in El Salvador. Small pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in Baja, Quintana Roo, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Surpluses are expected in Cuba and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall, a spin-off from Hurricane Agatha, produced flash flooding in Cuba in early June that claimed three lives. Nearly 12 inches (301 millimeters) of precipitation was recorded in just 30 hours in Pinar del Río Province, displacing 4,480 people. Other regions of the country, including Havana, experienced flooding and storm damage that forced the evacuation of 2,300 people and disrupted power to thousands of homes in Havana, Pinar del Rio and Mayabeque Provinces.

In Guatemala, a landslide triggered by intense precipitation killed seven people in late May.

Mid-June rainfall in Mexico City was accompanied by hail so intense it left city streets appearing snow-covered, and collapsed a supermarket roof injuring one person.

In the state of Nuevo Leon in northern Mexico, however, drought has led to water restrictions since the end of March. Rationing that began as a one-day-per-week cutoff recently changed to a mere six hours a day of water availability for the Monterrey Metropolitan Zone’s 5.3 million residents. The situation has provoked the ire of some locals forced to buy bottled water from the very extractive industries that access the region’s water sources.

In Sonora, another northern state, water in the Álvaro Obregón Dam, the largest on the Yaqui River, is at just 16.6 percent of capacity. The U.S. city of Nogales, Arizona is selling water to its southern neighbor, Sonora, and transporting the precious export via fire hoses poking through the border wall between the nations.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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